According to Timo Miettinen, a researcher at the University of Helsinki, most of the party is still behind Johnson. Nor is there a clear candidate for a successor to him.
6.6. 16:06 • Updated 6.6. 16:08
In Britain, the country’s Conservative Party will vote tonight on the party’s leader and prime minister Boris Johnson trust.
Academy researcher at the Center for European Studies, University of Helsinki Timo Miettisen according to part of the Conservative Party no longer supports Johnson.
According to Miettinen, the background is a report published last week about the celebrations held at Johnson’s official residence during the corona restrictions.
– Johnson seriously violated the legislation in force and has not wanted to take political responsibility for what happened, he says.
According to Miettinen, Johnson’s popularity is further eroded by the fact that the Conservative Party has lost its lead in opinion polls for the Labor Party, and that the British economy is suffering from the conservative Brexit policy and the resulting rise in prices, he said.
The researcher does not believe in Johnson’s defeat
Despite the scandals and dissatisfaction with him, Miettinen does not believe Johnson will lose the vote of confidence.
– Most of both government ministers and secondary ministers will support him.
However, Johnson’s problems do not end there.
According to Miettinen, it is felt in Britain that Johnson has not been able to address the problems plaguing the country, such as rising prices.
– Even if he survives the vote of confidence, his position does not look very strong.
If Johnson survives the vote of confidence, he will not be threatened with a new vote of confidence for at least a year. Party rules prevent this.
The longing for stability helps Johnson
However, if it happens that Johnson loses the vote, the Conservative Party will have to find a new candidate to lead the party and Britain.
– Of course, Johnson can also declare new elections, but the threshold is high due to the Gallup leadership of the Labor Party.
According to Miettinen, Britain is facing major challenges, and the longing for stability in this situation supports Johnson’s position.
– Ukraine’s war, Russia’s unpredictable development, very difficult EU relations, rising prices, and other political instability, he lists.
According to Miettinen, the Conservative Party also has no clear candidate to succeed Johnson. Johnson’s government ministers, such as the Treasury Secretary, have spun in the discussions, he said Rishi Sunak.
– However, his shares are weakened by the fact that he also received fines for attending Johnson’s Korona-era celebrations, Miettinen estimates.