President Volodymyr Zelenskyi presented his winning plan to Ukraine’s Verh’ovna Rada, or parliament, on Wednesday.
Zelenskyi summarized his long-honed victory plan into five main points or goals.
Program director specializing in Ukraine at the Foreign Policy Institute Arkady Moshes commented on the plan point by point at ‘s request.
Main point 1: Ukraine receives an invitation to join NATO.
– The most important point from Zelensky’s list: the only protection for Ukraine against Russia is NATO membership and security guarantees. I have participated in several seminars where we were thinking about viable alternatives to NATO membership. All options are either too unrealistic or not effective enough.
– But it is just as clear that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO in the near future. How long was Sweden and Finland pushed for membership, which almost all NATO countries wanted to become members? What would Hungary, Slovakia and Turkey say to Ukraine’s membership?
– Former Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg has highlighted the so-called “West German model”. This is just talk. The analogy doesn’t work in any way, the situation in West Germany was completely different, says Moshes.
Read more about the West German model here.
Main point 2: Ukraine gets more arms aid and permission to strike Russia with long-range weapons. Ukraine continues military operations on the Russian side to avoid the creation of “buffer zones” on its soil.
– In order for Ukraine to continue the war, it needs two things: Ukrainian soldiers to the front and western weapons in their hands. Long-range weapons might make life a little easier for the Ukrainians and harder for the Russians, but they won’t solve the war.
– Regarding Ukraine’s actions on the Russian side: I believe that the capture of Kursk was a mistake from a military point of view. Russia is Russia. For example, they can allow Ukraine to hold Kursk until Donbas is taken, and move troops to Kursk after that. Russia has taken over an area from Ukraine that is hugely larger than the Kursk area.
– There won’t be any big new takeovers because, as Ukraine’s failed counterattack last year showed, attacking is really difficult and requires a lot of manpower, Moshes says.
Main point 3: Ukraine gets a “strategic deterrent package” on its soil, which does not contain nuclear weapons but keeps Russia at bay.
– Honestly, I don’t know what this means. There are modern conventional missiles that are as effective as small nuclear weapons, could it be these?
– Or does Ukraine want Western troops on its soil? First of all, this is not going to happen under any circumstances. Second, how many Western troops would be needed to protect Ukraine? Half a million? Not going to happen.
Key point 4: The US and the EU work together to protect Ukraine’s critical natural resources. Allies can participate in the financial benefits obtained from them through joint business operations.
– Zelensky must be demanded and offered. Ukraine has, for example, natural gas, oil fields, grain and some coal. These offer western countries business opportunities. However, this will not happen until the war is over. Ukraine has suffered immensely during the war. The country’s industry, ports and energy production are being destroyed more and more every year, says Moshes.
Main Point 5: After the war, Ukraine replaces some US troops stationed in Europe with experienced Ukrainian troops.
– This is strange. Ukraine wants to be in NATO. This implies that NATO troops would enter the country. At the same time, however, Ukraine wants to move its troops to, for example, Germany to free the Americans from their bases?
– As long as the war continues, Ukrainian soldiers must fight for their country.
How would you sum up your feelings about the winning plan?
– When you win on the battlefield, you can make suggestions and plans. When you back off, it’s harder to do them.
– The West’s support for Ukraine is faltering and thus the West is only making the situation more difficult for itself. Zelenskyi talks about peace during the next year. Sometimes it sounds like the West is preparing for the surrender of Ukraine, says Moshes.
US President Biden, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz will meet in Berlin on Friday. Do you believe they will address Zelensky’s winning plan or make promises related to it?
– They may discuss the plan, but it is not the main topic of the meeting. There will be no promises. Germany’s Scholz in particular has been clear about the fact that Germany will not make the changes Zelensky wants in its line on Ukraine, says Moshes.