Carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase and the earth is heading towards 2.7 degrees of warming by the end of the century. If that happens, around two billion people will end up outside a temperature zone where people have lived throughout history. British and Chinese researchers draw the grim conclusion.
– I was obviously both shocked and amazed by our results, says Tim Lenton, professor at the University of Exeter who led the study.
Lives in ideal temperature
Just like for animals and plants, according to the researchers, there is a natural niche where people thrive and societies flourish. Most people live where the average temperature is partly around 13 degrees and partly around 27 degrees. But very few have lived in areas where the average temperature was above 29 degrees. As it gets warmer, it becomes difficult to farm and work, and people live shorter lives.
– When I was born there were almost no places on earth with a higher temperature, says Tim Lenton to SVT.
Escapes the heat
Tim Lenton believes that some can adapt but many may be forced to move, both within their own country but also to colder areas closer to the poles.
– I am sure that it will also mean international migration on a large scale.
Reduced emissions alleviate
Every tenth of a degree of increase means that another 140 million end up outside the “comfort zone”. If the countries of the world meet the climate goals from Paris and the warming stops at 1.5 degrees instead of 2.7, only one fifth as many will be affected.
– It is shocking and I feel empathy for all the people who will be exposed to a climate no one has experienced. It is a huge humanitarian issue where poor people in the tropics are most vulnerable.