(Finance) – Among the main European economies, the Spain it is the one that has recorded the most in recent quarters best performance. In the two-year period 2022-23, growth was driven by public spending and exports, as well as by a higher population increase than in the rest of the Eurozone. The per capita growth dynamics are in fact less brilliant than the aggregate ones but the prospects for domestic demand are favorable and point towards a consolidation of the recovery in the coming quarters. Andrea Volpi, economist of Intesa Sanpaoloin a research on the topic.
Me too’inflow of European funds and the activation of the investments envisaged by the Recovery and Resilience Plan should help support the activity until at least 2026.
The rates recorded between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 will be difficult to repeat, but Intesa Sanpaolo economists expect that the Spanish economy can continue to outperform the rest of the Eurozone in both 2024 and 2025, when we forecast GDP growth at 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively.
On the fiscal front, the government will have to present a tax bill in September more restrictive structural adjustment plan compared to what was foreseen in last year’s stability programme, but political instability could limit or delay the process of consolidating public finances.