Solar, wind, biofuels, heat pumps, biogas, geothermal, hydraulic, etc. Renewable energies (ENR) are finally taking off! Last year, they accounted for 83% of new global production capacity according to a International Renewable Energy Agency analysis (Irena), published in March. A lasting trend: in its report published last October, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects 2,000 billion dollars in annual funding for this clean industry by 2030, ie 50% more than today.
“We are witnessing a groundswell. This growth was not interrupted during the Covid pandemic or the crisis in Ukraine which, on the contrary, only reinforced the need to secure supplies”, observes Christophe Bonnery, President of the Association of Energy Economists. Problem: the consumption of fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) remains, at the same time, at a high level since, still according to the IEA, their global CO2 emissions should peak in 2025 at 37 billion tonnes. and would “only” recede to 32 billion tonnes in 2050. Insufficient to prevent average temperatures from rising by 2.5 degrees by 2100, far from the objective of the Paris agreement (less than 2 degrees). “The energy transition is not taking place”, lament the experts of the international network REN21, in a report recent. For its part, theWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) even estimates that investments should be tripled.
In this race against time, China is a paradoxical leader. Responsible for more than a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is also the largest producer of renewable energy in the world! 546 billion dollars spent in 2022 on the energy transition, i.e. half of the financing in the world, according to a study by BloombergNEF. The United States only comes second with… 141 billion dollars.
Chinese and American ambivalences
And sector by sector, the domination of the Middle Kingdom is impressive since, tails, it weighs nearly half of the 1.4 million global jobs in wind power and even 63% of the 4.3 million jobs. in photovoltaic solar panels, according to the data gleaned in 2021 by Irena. Numbers set to grow: China’s central economic planner last year planned to double the country’s wind and solar capacity by 2025. On the face side, the Asian giant has never approved so many coal-fired power plant constructions than in 2022 (two per week), according to a recent study from the Finnish research institute Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), and the American NGO Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
An ambivalence which is also found on the American side: to compensate for the embargo on Russian oil and gas imports, the United States should pump in 2023 a record level of 13 million barrels of crude oil per day. At the same time, the Biden administration has voted two legislative packages to invest in all directions in the development of renewable energies, carbon capture techniques, hydrogen, insulation and batteries. Between the infrastructure investment plan in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), it is thus a cumulative envelope of 500 billion dollars!
In France, things are also progressing: the law relating to the acceleration of renewable energies, promulgated on March 10, 2023, makes it possible to better plan and facilitate the realization of wind or solar projects. “Overall, it is going in the right direction, even if we regret some setbacks in onshore wind power and missed opportunities, such as the absence of a discount on the bill for residents of renewable energies”, estimates Jérémy Simon, deputy general delegate. of the Renewable Energies Trade Union. The legislative mechanism is above all intended to remove certain regulatory and legal obstacles which have delayed many installations in the past. According to Eurostat, clean energies represent 19.3% of French energy consumption in 2021, almost the same ratio as Germany or Italy, and 10 points more than in 2005. However, this level is lower than that of the European average (21.8%) and the country has set itself an ambitious objective since it will have to reach 33% in 2030 and at least 70% in 2050, in order to achieve carbon neutrality. Too optimistic? Even Emmanuel Macron acknowledged in a video posted on social networks that the current pace remained insufficient: “We must double the rate of effort compared to what we have done in the last five years”. What Bruno Lemaire, his Minister of the Economy, quantified “from 60 to 70 billion additional euros per year”, before announcing for the end of May, a new law so that the State can act as a “lever for private investment”.
No other choice but to pick up the pace
France has no choice but to step up the pace. The operator of the electricity transmission network (RTE) forecast for 2050 an overall reduction of 40% in French energy consumption, thanks to efforts to reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency. But, at the same time, electricity needs will continue to increase to replace fossil fuels. And the timetable is not ideal since the decarbonization effort will take place at the same time as the gradual closure of the nuclear fleet reaching the end of its life. Given the deadlines for building potential new reactors, renewable energies are emerging as an imperative growth driver in the short term. “The facilities that will achieve carbon neutrality in the second half of the 21st century have not yet been built today”, summarizes Thomas Veyrenc, executive director in charge of strategy, forecasting and evaluation at RTE. Before recalling: “Renewable energies are not intended to replace nuclear power but imported fossil energy.”
There remains a positive unknown: the speed of technological developments since renewable energies have become largely economically competitive. “Between 2010 and 2020, the production costs of installations fell by 40% for onshore wind power and by 80% for photovoltaics”, rejoices Boris Ravignon, president of Ademe. “It was necessary to subsidize these energies to bring out the sectors, but today, they bring money to the State”, assures Jérémy Simon. Between 2000 and 2019, they generated savings of 22 billion euros on French gas and oil imports. This is enough to start reducing the bill for the energy transition.
This article is taken from the special issue “Energy transition: let’s invest together!” available on newsstands June 29.