This is good news for the climate… if everything goes as planned. In its latest report “Electricity 2024” published this Wednesday, January 24, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the annual global production of electricity linked to renewable energies should exceed the share linked to coal by 2026.
More precisely, the agency estimates that the current share of renewable energies of 30% of the global electricity mix in 2023 would increase from within two years to 37% of total production. A trend especially driven by the development of photovoltaic solar energy.
Conversely, therefore, coal production is expected to fall by 1.7% per year on average by 2026, while this energy source represented 36% of global electricity production last year. And yet, the share of coal increased by 1.6% between 2022 and 2023.
The cause: the numerous droughts which affected China in 2023. Despite its gigantic dams, this climate has caused a reduction in its hydroelectric production. Already responsible for more than half of the electricity produced by coal in the world, Beijing had to compensate for this loss.
If this decline in coal is also favored by a stable increase in nuclear power, the IEA therefore specifies that the upward trend in renewable energies for 2026 will depend on the climate and Chinese hydroelectric dams.