Campaign launches are not a monument to improvisation. We check boxes, so many imposed figures. On the menu: militant mobilization, rally images and installation of the candidate. The first Renaissance des Européennes meeting, orchestrated this Saturday in front of more than 2,000 activists gathered in Lille, did not escape this ritual. With, in the background, the installation of a duel with the National Rally (RN) around the Ukrainian conflict.
“Valérie Hayer, I don’t think you know him!!!” Inside the Grand Palais, activists chant the name of the head of the Renaissance list to Benjamin Pavard’s song during the 2018 World Cup. Valérie Hayer? Few French people know the MEP, who was propelled to the forefront of the presidential camp after a series of defections. There is an urgent need to bring it into homes, and to silence this song. Photos of the MEP as a child are revealed in a video self-portrait broadcast on a giant screen. In her speech, she presents herself as a “woman from Mayenne” and traces her political commitment. Her default candidate image? “I hope people don’t say that because I’m a woman.”
The targeted RN
Edouard Philippe, François Bayrou, Gérald Darmanin… The tenors of the majority follow one another to praise him. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal praises his “strength and commitment” to the European Parliament, an inverted mirror of the “ghosts […] without a project or balance sheet”. Understand: the “Le Pen clan”, which it methodically destroys. The majority thus sets up its duel against the far right, which is ahead of it by ten points in the polls. The competition is polarized, the other adversaries made invisible.
“Does France want to leave Europe?” asks Gabriel Attal, turning the campaign into a referendum on a Frexit. The voter hostile to such a perspective is guided in his choice. In a video broadcast on a giant screen, Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné summarizes the June 9 vote as a “choice between two ballot papers” and “two conceptions of Europe”. In her speech, Valérie Hayer undermines the ideological zigzags of the far right and its “hidden Frexit”. The leader, on the other hand, is careful not to lock herself into an exclusive criticism of the RN. She eulogizes European construction and praises the successes recorded by the Renew delegation in the European Parliament.
Ukraine, a lever of mobilization
Three months before the vote, the time has come for polarization. The Ukrainian conflict serves as leverage. In a vote hit by abstention, the majority intends to mobilize its supporters by pointing out the supposed complacency of the RN towards Vladimir Putin. “The weather is very Ukraine,” admits a Renaissance executive. Valérie Hayer compares Marine Le Pen to Daladier and Chamberlain, signatories of the disastrous Munich agreements in 1938. “The RN claims to defend our values. They are the first to fall into submission at the slightest shock,” says the head of the list.
Everyone goes their own way. Gabriel Attal paints the portrait of a Putinophile RN, permeable to his influence. He evokes the Frontist support for the “invasion of Crimea”, its financing by a Russian bank or its past desire to conclude an alliance with Russia: “If we had listened to them, we would be supplying weapons to Russia today to crush the Ukrainians.” The boss of Modem François Bayrou pins those who accompany their support for Ukraine with an ambiguous “but”. Just like Edouard Philippe, critical of supporters of Ukraine… On condition that the support is “not too expensive, too long, or too aggressive towards Vladimir Putin”.
“My target, the macronists who doubt”
The diplomatic escalation and the stagnation of the conflict lend themselves to this strategy. The national context, too. Emmanuel Macron brought together party leaders on Thursday to discuss the military situation in the east. A debate, followed by a vote, will be organized in Parliament next week. Way to lift the veil on the frontist ambiguities.
The presidential camp is finally impatiently awaiting the first televised debate, on March 12 on Public Senate. The boss of the RN will be replaced by MEP Thierry Mariani, renowned for his connections with Russia. “Blessed bread,” salivates a Renaissance deputy. “Hubris,” adds a Macronist strategist. “They think that nothing can reach them. It’s a provocation, but they’re playing with fire.” Criticism of nationalism, praise of Europe. As in 2019, the presidential camp is deploying a simple message to mobilize its people. Two projects at ideological opposites, the fear of the dislocation of Europe as a driving force for voting. “My first target is the Macronists who doubt,” notes a campaign executive. A message was sent to them.
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