Pressure is mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is increasingly isolated. For the first time since the conflict in the Middle East began more than five months ago, the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza. A snub for Israel because this time, the faithful American ally did not block the vote.
His abstention, which provoked an outraged reaction from “Bibi”, confirms the Biden administration’s desire to distance itself from him. The exasperation was palpable in recent weeks in Washington. While the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, called for new elections in Israel, Joe Biden, who lost political credit in the middle of an election year by linking himself to the Israeli right and far right, declared that Netanyahu was causing “more harm than good” to the Jewish state.
American tension is now focused on the offensive that the IDF intends to carry out in Rafah, in the south of Gaza, where more than a million people are concentrated. Fearing heavy additional civilian losses and a humanitarian disaster, Antony Blinken, the head of American diplomacy, did not hide his hostility towards this operation.
The “Netanyahu Dilemma”
For now, Netanyahu is sticking to his strategy. The day after the vote, the Israeli army launched new raids against Gaza. In reality, “only the suspension of American military aid would create a crisis and create real pressure,” underlines Jean-Loup Samaan, researcher at the Middle East Institute at the University of Singapore.
In the United States, some people are dreaming of the Likud president leaving. But getting rid of this formidable political animal will be no easy feat – and would not necessarily change the Israeli position. “Two parameters favor the status quo: on the one hand, Israeli public opinion remains divided on the idea of forcing political change in the midst of conflict; on the other hand, the government coalition, aligned with the war, still holds” , summarizes Jean-Louis Samaan.
As long as the war lasts, Netanyahu can cling to power, despite his unpopularity. A ceasefire would implode its alliance with the far right, especially if the hostages are not released. The head of government knows this and does not hesitate to raise the specter of instability if he leaves power. To keep it, should he preserve his alliance with the far right or with the Biden administration? The “Netanyahu dilemma” could quickly become insoluble.