In India, elections begin this Thursday, February 10 in five regions. The spotlight will be on northern Uttar Pradesh, the stronghold of the ruling BJP party. This is where the Prime Minister will play his re-election in 2024. This regional election is therefore crucial for him, but also for his protege Yogi Adityanath.
The size of Nigeria, Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state in india, with more than 200 million inhabitants. It is also the stronghold of Hindu nationalist party BJP in power. The ballot is particularly important for Yogi Adityanath, even more extremist and Islamophobic than his mentor Narendra Modi. This monk who preaches hatred against Muslims is a favorite.
For economist Jean-Joseph Boileau, however, a surprise cannot be ruled out: “ Yogi Adityanath starts out as the favourite, but he had a massive election victory in 2017, playing on the element of surprise, much like Narendra Modi in 2014. He had a lot more difficulty over time because this division inside Uttar Pradesh created a stir, significant killings in villages. This India which is on fire and blood has had economic repercussions, since the economic situation of Uttar Pradesh is not good at all, without forgetting the repercussions in terms of the pain of living. »
BJP facing divided opposition
The protege of Narendra Modi is therefore rather on a downward slope, believes Jean-Joseph Boileau, and the question that arises is whether he will still have an absolute majority or a relative majority in the next ballot.
” Afterwards, whether he is going to accentuate his speech and his Islamophobic and anti-religious policy, since Christians are always also targeted in his hate speech, that is not certain, because there is a civil society, particularly in the south of the island. And this is where the resistance is strongest. If the BJP still manages to stay in power, it is more because the opposition is totally divided than because it is on the rise. »
►To listen: India: elections in Uttar Pradesh, the laboratory of Hindu nationalism in difficulty