For more than ten years, Lebanon has welcomed more than two million displaced Syrians and, for 75 years, some 300,000 Palestinians, a group which represents more than a quarter of the country’s inhabitants. According to a study, this presence of refugees could lead to a “ drastic change in the demographic fabric »: the Lebanese could only represent 52% of the population in 2038, according to the study prepared by Charbel Nahas, renowned economist and former Minister of Telecommunications.
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From our correspondent in Beirut,
This scenario, the most pessimistic established by the study, is at the same time perfectly realistic in view of current demographic developments: already today, the Lebanese only represent between 65% and 69% of the resident population. In 2018, they constituted 71% of Lebanon’s population and, twenty years ago, almost 80%.
The figures clearly show a rapidly declining Lebanese population. Charbel Nahas sounds the alarm on the nature and extent of the phenomenon of demographic changes.
More than double the number of Syrian refugees aged 1 to 4 compared to Lebanese children
The study shows that in certain age groups, Syrian refugees are already more numerous than the Lebanese and in proportions which are not negligible. THE children of Syrian refugees aged 1 to 4 represent more than double the number of Lebanese children of the same age. For young people aged between 5 and 14, the Syrian population is also larger than the Lebanese.
This is not yet the case for young people aged 15 to 19, but the margins are minimal and if current developments are confirmed, the number of Syrian refugees in this age group will very soon be higher than the same contrasts with the Lebanese.
The decline in fertility affects all communities
Lebanon has the highest density of refugees per capita in the world. But this massive presence – of Syrian refugees, and to a lesser extent, of Palestinians – is not the only reason to explain the decline of the Lebanese population.
The other factor is the decline in fertility. This phenomenon, in the past limited to Christians, has spread to Sunni and more recently Shiite communities, due to the improvement in living standards over the last three decades, particularly among Muslim communities.
Finally, the third factor is emigration, a Lebanese tradition dating back almost two centuries. This phenomenon is caused by historical events, such as the intercommunal massacres of 1860, the famine of 1914, the civil war between 1975 and 1990, or, more recently, the economic crisis of 2019.
Comparative figures show that between 1997 and 2018, Lebanon lost nearly 25,000 people each year.
Since 2019, this number has more than tripled. 78,000 Lebanese left the country every year, or 470,000 people, for a population of less than 7 million inhabitants.
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