This Monday is discussed in the National Assembly a text aimed at organizing a referendum on the question of pension reform. Does this have a chance of succeeding?
Let’s go to the National Assembly for the parliamentary contests on pension reform! This Monday, February 6, 2023, the bill could not be more burning begins to be examined at the Bourbon palace. The debates promise to be heated, especially in view of the social protest that has been raging in the streets since mid-January. But before exchanging and voting on the postponement of the minimum retirement age to 64, another debate will take place: that of knowing whether the text must be voted on by Parliament or the French directly. In other words, a vote that could launch a referendum on the issue. This “referendum motion”, presented by the RN, must obtain a majority of votes to begin the long process towards the eventual referendum.
If the option remains very hypothetical (read below), it would however respond to a request from a majority of French people who wish to decide the question of pension reform by a referendum. This is what emerged from a survey conducted by the CSA Institute and published on 1er FEBRUARY. Made for CNews, it indicates that 69% of respondents want a referendum on the issue, more particularly those under 35 (77%) compared to those over 50 (63%). Both among supporters of the Nupes and the far right, the desire to go to the polls is strong (77%). Only Macronists and LR voters are less inclined to such a device (45%).
Who will vote on the text?
To pass the first stage, the referendum motion must receive a majority of votes. However, this looks complicated at first sight. First, because a large part of the 250 deputies of the presidential majority will oppose it, as will the 61 elected LRs. But all might not be present in the session and therefore leave hope for the RN to see the text pass.
However, his 88 votes alone will not be enough. It is therefore the left that holds the keys to the success, or not, of this proposal. Opposed to the pension reform, will she ally with the far right? It seems unrealistic. First because the Nupes does not usually vote for the texts of the RN. In addition, the union of the left had also tabled a referendum motion on the subject. However, it is that of the RN which was chosen, by drawing lots. This aroused the ire of the Nupes, the process having never been seen before.
The environmental group (22 deputies), as well as the socialists (27), have already announced that they would not go in the direction of the party of Marine Le Pen, a question of fierce opposition to all that is supported by this parliamentary group. LFI (74) and the Communists (22) are still thinking, but this seems too light, even in the hypothetical LFI-RN union.
Macron last decision maker
If a combination of circumstances made it possible to pass the referendum motion in the Assembly, the latter would then be transmitted to the Senate which should in turn issue an opinion within 30 days. But with an upper chamber dominated by LR, it is difficult to believe in the outcome of the procedure. If it were to be voted on, the referendum proposal would then be transmitted to the President of the Republic. But he would remain completely free of his choice. In the case of a referendum motion, the work and the parliamentary vote do not definitively confirm the choice of the elected officials: it is Emmanuel Macron who would have the last word. It is then up to him to decide whether or not he wishes to call the French to the polls on this subject.