There was a time, not so long ago, when Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bashar el-Assad spent their vacations together, as a family, in the seaside resort of Bodrum. For almost ten years, in the 2000s, the two heads of state formed a true geopolitical duo, making their respective economies flourish. But the Syrian revolt of 2011, which became a revolution, shattered their idyll: outraged by the repression against demonstrators, Erdogan went so far as to describe Assad as a “terrorist” and asked Barack Obama to overthrow the regime. As early as 2012, the sultan promised to march “soon” on Damascus.
Twelve years later, it is indeed Turkey’s friends who hold the Syrian capital. Ankara trained and financed rebels in northern Syria for years before greenlighting the November offensive. Erdogan wins on all fronts: he is the only one capable of influencing the new masters of Damascus; more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye are preparing to return home; and the Turkish construction giants, known to be close to the Erdogan clan, will pocket the billions of dollars from the reconstruction of the neighboring country. Not since the Ottoman Empire has Turkey benefited from such regional influence.
But Ankara risks pushing its pawns too far. Taking advantage of the chaos, pro-Turkish militias are increasingly attacking the Kurds of Syria, even though they are allies of the United States in the fight against Daesh. A month before Donald Trump’s return, it’s another dangerous bet.