Present in Daily this Monday March 27, 2023, Edouard Philippe is rare in the media. To the point that his person questions. Is he still a real supporter of Emmanuel Macron or does he have his eyes fixed on the presidential election of 2027?
“Conditions of trust” and “of fluidity which will remain all my life as three rather exceptional years of incredible density and richness.” It is in these terms that Edouard Philippe wanted to thank Emmanuel Macron when he left Matignon on July 3, 2020. Since then, a lot of water has flowed under the bridges, political life has been turned upside down and Edouard Philippe s is somewhat emancipated from a President of the Republic who brought him to light by entrusting him with the leadership of the government.
Since then, the current mayor of Le Havre (Seine-Maritime) has created his party, Horizons, winning 29 deputies in the National Assembly, with the support of the presidential formation. Enough to give it a certain weight in a fragmented hemicycle, without an absolute majority. Since then, disagreements have come to light within the alliance supposed to support the government’s action.
But never, in the mouth of Edouard Philippe, a direct criticism of his former boss. Since then, however, a relationship has become icy. A few symbolic acts and double-edged remarks, just to remind us that a form of independence was taken by the former Prime Minister. And this, while Macron seems to need Philippe. But is the reverse true?
For Renaissance, the need for Horizons to govern
In the National Assembly, the majority hangs by a thread: the vote on the motion of censure post-“49.3 pension reform” proved it. The objectives listed on Elisabeth Borne’s roadmap can only be achieved with alliances, text by text. If it seems rather improbable that the Horizons deputies will oppose the government frontally – “Horizons is, and will remain, a member of the presidential majority” affirmed Edouard Philippe on March 25 – pitfalls can be disseminated, here and there.
As when the Horizons deputies refused to vote on a bill aimed at imposing a sentence of ineligibility on the perpetrators of domestic violence, yet proposed by the majority. Internally, many regulars in the corridors of the Bourbon palace relate an icy relationship between the members of Renaissance (Emmanuel Macron’s party) and those of Horizons. The spades addressed by the macronist camp to the address of the philippists are hardly appreciated.
Especially since, starting from scratch, the political formation of the former head of government is starting to really take on some thickness: 20,000 members and 450 mayors are stamped Horizons. In the lot, some big political fish from the south, like Christian Estrosi (mayor of Nice), Hubert Falco (Toulon) or Patrick de Carolis (Arles). The political establishment of the party is real. Difficult for Macron and Renaissance, in this incandescent legislative context, to fall out with Edouard Philippe. The fact remains that there are only two personalities in the current government: Christophe Béchu at the Ecological Transition and Agnès Firmin-Le Bodo, delegate for Territorial Organization and Health Professions.
A height gain to capitalize on its popularity?
If the Renaissance party appears today shaken up as it has never been, is it imaginable to see Edouard Philippe take the light? Presumably, this is not the line that the mayor of Le Havre has set himself. The time is rather to maintain the alliance, as he declared in front of all the executives of the macronist formation, Saturday March 25, on the sidelines of the first Horizons congress. An alliance, yes, not without some remonstrances, in particular on the current political organization in the Assembly, summing up “the absolute need to organize the central bloc” around a majority “which could work better.” Impliedly, less of Renaissance alone and more listening to the proposals of Horizons.
But while the climate is particularly tense, why is Edouard Philippe not really coming out of the woods, he who enjoys a much higher popularity rating than Emmanuel Macron (44% favorable opinions against 32% on 1er March 2023 – Ipsos)? The 50-year-old reserves his remarks. In contrast to politicians who talk incessantly, he prefers “to speak wisely. […] Otherwise, we exhaust ourselves in speaking and we impoverish our own reflection”, as he confided to the Figaro. His height gain could serve as a springboard for 2027.
While Emmanuel Macron will not be able to be a candidate for his re-election, his former Prime Minister could try to take his place. By making himself rare but by asserting his positions – as he did on the pension reform – Edouard Philippe could thus capitalize on his popularity. Or, at least, less lose credit that could close the gates of the Elysée. In the meantime, “Horizons is a member of the majority, I have always been clear on this subject, assures Edouard Philippe, who adds to this axiom: “We support the government and the Prime Minister. Without hesitation, without procrastination, and with high standards.”