GAS SHUTDOWN. Gas consumption during the winter is one of the main concerns of the government, which fears running out of stock. The idea of rationing it is mentioned.
[Mise à jour le 6 septembre 2022 à 15h09] The subject has been so hot in recent days that the President of the Republic in person has taken the floor to express himself on it. The possibility that France will run out of gas this winter is worrying the population because the terms of rationing and cuts have already been widely discussed in the leading media. Is the government preparing minds for the tough coming months in terms of energy? Emmanuel Macron wants to try to reassure, evoking “the objective of having no gas and electricity cuts” in order to “preserve our economic activity so as not to enter an economic crisis”, as he said. affirmed Monday, September 5, 2022 during a press conference.
At this stage, the government therefore does not intend to put in place restrictions on the use of gas in the coming months. Firstly because of the stocks which allow us to approach the coming weeks calmly according to the Head of State, but also because of a drop in gas consumption. The latter is not linked to the general call for “energy sobriety” requested by the ministers but is indeed constrained because of prices. According to Engie, a drop of 4 to 5% in usual consumption has already been recorded. But the President of the Republic called for more efforts to limit the risks. Is France really threatened by a lack of gas this winter? Who is affected by these calls for sobriety? How to avoid a possible shortage? We take stock.
If the stocks will be filled at the beginning of winter, this does not mean that no problems can arise. Indeed, when gas storage is 100% in France, this represents 130 TWh, or a third of the country’s annual consumption. In the columns of Parisian, an Engie executive explains that it is “the equivalent of two months of our national consumption”. These stocks alone, as they stand, will therefore not be enough to last all winter. Thus, it will be necessary to continue to supply them during the season.
This is where a first problem arises: because thanks to what deliveries will France be able to fill its stocks? Russia, a gas producer, has closed the supply tap with France, prices are soaring and the government even fears that orders placed will not be honored in the face of the current tension on the gas market.
In addition, the weather will be a determining factor. For now, “we have the volumes [de gaz, NDLR] which are necessary for us in an average climate” according to the deputy director general of Engie, Claire Waysand, present on August 29 at the start of the Medef school year. But in the event of cold waves or if the winter promises to be harsher, the needs in gas will become more important and will create “hours or days of tension” according to the Minister for Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
Thus, France risks having to ration the use of gas to avoid any shortage. Consume less, everywhere, to get more out of it: that’s the watchword for the coming winter. Thus, gas cuts could occur. But not everyone will be affected.
What are the risks of gas shortages in France?
It is difficult to assess the risks of a gas shortage which will largely depend on the weather forecasts or the cold peaks expected this winter. In the event of a season with mild temperatures, the risk of breakdowns will be reduced, but the government prefers to prepare for the worst scenario before the first forecasts from Météo-France expected at the end of September and announces possible gas cuts or occasional rationing.
Companies and factories would then be the only ones affected by the cuts, or at least “the first affected”. Individuals, who mainly use gas for heating or cooking, will still be called upon to reduce their consumption as much as possible “taking into account their means”. Emmanuel Macron thus asked not to put the heating above 19°C. What, according to him, save 10% of consumption. Elisabeth Borne and Olivier Véran have assured that households who are already in energy poverty will not be asked to make efforts. If occasional gas cuts were not enough to protect against the shortage, shedding operations could be organised, i.e. sudden and unexpected cuts.
Gas cuts as a solution? For who ?
The government’s goal remains to avoid gas cuts by anticipating and above all reducing energy consumption. The objective of a 10% reduction was set by Elisabeth Borne for companies and professionals, but also individuals. This reduction must be made possible by an energy sobriety plan that each company must establish in September. The first avenues for reflection on the drop in consumption relate to heating – companies could be invited to lower the temperature of their premises to 19°C this winter – or even to illuminated advertisements. The Council of State is also examining a decree prohibiting the lighting of company logos and premises at night.
Reducing the use of heating is also a measure to which individuals are invited. It would be a question of lowering the temperature by one or a few degrees to approach or reach 19°C. For households, energy sobriety must above all go through daily reflexes and eco-gestures. The government has announced the forthcoming distribution of a communication campaign on the right things to do to reduce gas consumption.
In addition, occasional gas cuts could be decided. “If all the assumptions are unfavorable, there may be restrictions,” warned Elisabeth Borne. But they will not concern households. “There will be no gas cut for households,” she reassured. These are the companies that could be concerned: “on gas, we are not going to cut off individuals. So, we discuss with companies that consume a lot of gas to see what the consequences would be if we cut off the gas in a company.” But the device is only in the draft, at this stage.