(Finance) – For a few days the rates applied to mortgages have started to rise again significantly, exceeding, in the case of those indexed to badger fixed, the 2% threshold. What does this change mean in practice? How much does it affect or will it affect the pockets of Italians? What are the future prospects and how can consumers protect themselves? Here is the analysis of Facile.it. Starting from the numbers of the Easy.it – Mutui.it Observatory relating to the comparison between April 2022 and April 2021, it emerged that, among the main evidencethere is a change in the identikit of the average applicant – a phenomenon substantially due to the increase in the share of Under 36 which initiated the procedures for obtaining a mortgage – and the increase in the percentage weight of requests for financing for the purchase of the first home on the total number of applications presented; again, the determining factor for this is the increase in the number of young applicants.
Here is how the values of the index have changed from January to today EURIRS and the best Taeg offered to the customer: the EURIRS (20 years) went from 0.60 (January 4, 2022) to 1.97 (May 9, 2022), while the fixed rate to the customer (best Teag) rose from 1.21% ( January 22) to 2.12% (May 22). For those who have already signed a fixed-rate mortgage, nothing changes, for those who have to sign it today, the differences are important. Taking into consideration a fixed mortgage of 126,000 euros to be repaid in 25 years (LTV 70%), in January 2022 the monthly payment available with the best fixed-rate Taeg was 483 euros, while in May 2022 it reached 528 euros; 45 euros more per month, i.e. 13,500 euros more in interest for the entire duration of the loan.
As regards the variable rate, however, theEURIBOR at 3 months it went from -0.57 (January 4, 2022) to -0.40 (May 9, 22) and the rates offered to the aspiring borrower (best Taeg) ranged from 0.72% (January 22) to 0, 75% (May 22). Also considering in this case a loan of 126,000 euros to be repaid in 25 years (LTV 70%), last January the installment monthly available with the best Taeg was 456 euros, a value that remained unchanged even in May.
The variable rate, therefore, returns to be an interesting alternative to the fixed one, since the starting rate is 72 euros lower. The great competition between the credit institutions is, at this moment, keeping practically unchanged i costs of the best offer available for the customer who must sign the loan. For fixed rates, guided by the IRS, it is necessary to look at the trend of the German Bund, while for the variable ones, guided by the Euribor, the policy monetary of the ECB and the possible decision to increase the cost of borrowing. “In general – they say experts di Facile.it and Mutui.it – we expect an increase in the indices, but the extent of this will be linked to a series of highly uncertain variables such as, for example, the conflict in Ukraine, the cost of raw materials, the weight of inflation, the economic trend and, as mentioned, the decisions of the European Central Bank “.
Difficult to predict on the front of the market real estate, the first to be impacted by the movements of the indexes linked to the mutes. While on the one hand the increase in rates could negatively affect the demand for houses – which, in the long run, could result in a drop in prices – on the other hand it should be noted that in moments of instability such as the current one, the brick becomes for many a safe haven asset, and this could have the opposite effect on prices. It will also be essential to look at how the country’s economic growth prospects will change in the coming months.
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