Russia has brought more troops to the Ukrainian border, and the threat of war seems greater than ever. It is still unclear whether Putin has the political will to engage in full-scale hostilities.
In this story, we tell you what Russia can win and lose by starting a war, how great the risk of war is, and how it could still be avoided.
1. What is Russia trying to do by putting pressure on Ukraine?
Russia is trying to maintain its grip on Eastern Europe by keeping Ukraine under its political control.
Russia fears losing its influence in Eastern Europe as Ukraine has increased its cooperation with the West and NATO. Under pressure from the Russian president Vladimir Putin seeks to show Ukraine, NATO and the United States that Ukraine is within its sphere of competence. For pressure to be credible, the possibility of an attack must be real.
2. Is the threat of war greater now than a week ago?
The military threat looks bigger than a week ago.
Russia has many more troops and equipment on the Ukrainian border and is presenting them aggressively. However, we do not know whether Russia has the political will for a full-scale war.
– Here is also the threat of self-fulfilling prophecy. As perceptions begin to emerge that the threat of war is getting worse, it catches on. This has the effect of increasing the threat of war, says a senior researcher Jussi Lassila About the Foreign Policy Institute.
3. What is meant by war in this situation? Ukraine has been at war for years.
Eastern Ukraine has been at war since 2014. It is now a matter of widening the war.
A war to occupy the whole of Ukraine is unlikely because there are too many risks involved in such an operation. Russia could lose a lot of its own soldiers in the fight and the war could become unpopular in the eyes of the people.
4. What will Putin lose if Russia starts a war?
Russia would lose soldiers and money.
– Ukraine is not a light opponent, even if Russia is superior, there would be significant losses of men and materials, says the director of the Department of Military Art Petteri Kajanmaa About the National Defense College.
The war would also incur costs, and the economic and diplomatic sanctions or sanctions imposed on Russia by the West would cause losses.
In addition, starting a war would become a loss of prestige.
5. How else could Putin retreat?
Putin can withdraw from the war if Russia gains political victory in one way or another.
Putin can back down if he can show that something has been achieved with the use of force and that the threat to Russia has diminished.
For Putin, the biggest win would be if Ukraine announced that it was not currently applying for NATO membership. Such has not been heard, but the British ambassador to Ukraine caused a small uproar by responding in an interview with the BBC that Ukraine could be “flexible” in the NATO project to avoid war. However, he later said (you will switch to another service)that any concessions would not be related to NATO membership.
– Russia has already achieved one victory when it has shown that it has a significant military force with which it can upset the balance in Europe, Kajanmaa says.
6. Where has Russia concentrated its troops?
More than half of Russia’s rapidly deployable military force is concentrated near the Ukrainian border.
Ukraine is besieged by an estimated 130,000 Russian troops, and Russian military bases on the Ukrainian border have grown exponentially since the 2014 occupation of Crimea.
7. Can military action extend beyond Europe?
If actual warfare were to take place, the risk of a wider conflict would be real.
The war created a wave of solidarity in Europe, especially for NATO countries. Some have already provided arms assistance. However, no country has sent troops to support Ukraine.
Economic as well as diplomatic restrictions on both sides would tighten the gap between Russia and the West, and the United States would likely want to intervene in the conflict. A crisis in the situation would be possible.
8. How would a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine affect Finland?
Russia would increase military activity near Finland.
There is currently no military threat to Finland. However, the expansion of the war would significantly increase uncertainty. The gap between Finland and Russia would cool down, as Finland, together with the EU, would impose sanctions on Russia.
Russia would increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea and test our preparedness for regional violations at sea and in the air. The risk of injury would increase.
9. Why did the United States publicly say that Russia could attack on Wednesday?
The United States wants to take away the possibility of a surprise attack from Russia.
This is an information war. Presenting intelligence is a strategic game in which the United States wants to show that Russia is to blame for the war.
After the U.S. released its assessment of Wednesday’s attack, Russia is likely to have to reconsider the pros and cons of the attack.
– The mainila-type staging is played out with this output, believes Petteri Kajanmaa, director of the Department of Military Arts at the National Defense College.
Mainila’s shots were a fire opening staged by the Soviet Union, which led to the Soviet invasion and the outbreak of the Winter War between Finland and the Soviet Union.
10. How do attempts to trigger tension continue?
The meetings will continue on Tuesday in Moscow.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Putin in Moscow on Tuesday. Yesterday Scholz visited Kiev, Ukraine.
The diplomatic shuttle that has been going on for weeks has not led to a solution, but it is still hoped that a solution will be discussed to combat the threat of Russian invasion.
For the story, Petteri Kajanmaa, Director of the Department of Military Arts at the National Defense College, and Jussi Lassila, a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, have been interviewed.
You can discuss the topic on 16.2. until 11 p.m.