The second round of the legislative elections is expected to feature three-way races in many constituencies. Here’s everything you need to know.
After the results of the first round of the early legislative elections, it’s time for political strategies. On Sunday evening, estimates indicated 230 to 260 three-way races for the second round of the early legislative elections. But what does a three-way race correspond to? When, at the end of the first round, three candidates manage to accumulate 12.5% of the votes of registered voters, then the latter are eligible for the second round of the election. In most of the three-way races, the RN, the NFP and the presidential majority are present.
If none of the three candidates withdraw, voters must then vote in the second round for their preferred party according to the three choices offered. At the end of this vote, the candidate with the most votes won and became a member of the National Assembly. Be careful, a candidate can withdraw to try to block a party. This is what should happen for the NFP and the presidential majority, who asked their candidates who came in 3rd to withdraw, to maximize the chances that a “republican” candidate would win against the National Rally.
The second round of the legislative elections will therefore take place this Sunday, July 7. As a reminder, the 577 deputies who make up the National Assembly are elected by direct universal suffrage by the voters registered on the electoral lists. They are then elected for a period of 5 years… except in the event of dissolution of the National Assembly.
How do you qualify for the second round of legislative elections?
The second round of the legislative elections takes place when no candidate obtains an absolute majority of the votes cast in the first round. This absolute majority is set at 50% of the votes + 1 as well as 25% of registered voters. A high turnout therefore mechanically implies easier access to this threshold. If these two conditions are not met, a second round is organized one week after the first. On July 7.
To qualify for the second round, candidates must also meet certain conditions. First, it is necessary to have collected the votes of at least 12.5% of the voters registered in the constituency. This rule theoretically makes it possible to restrict the number of candidates present in the second round and to encourage alliances and groupings between the different political forces. But as for the 25% threshold necessary for an election in the first round, the high participation this Sunday makes it all the easier to access the 12.5% of registered voters.
However, in some constituencies, it may happen that no candidate meets this condition. In this case, the two candidates who came first in the first round, regardless of their score, automatically qualify for the second round. This scenario ensures that there will always be an electoral competition for each seat in the National Assembly.
Triangular and alliances in the second round
In the second round, the electoral dynamics often change dramatically. Candidates eliminated in the first round may choose to support one of the remaining candidates, which can lead to new political alliances. Voters, in turn, may decide to change their vote based on the new support or to prevent the election of a candidate they deem undesirable. This is called a “block vote.”
The second round is therefore based on alliance and withdrawal strategies, but also on the candidates’ ability to mobilize voters. Unlike the first round, a relative majority is enough to be elected in the second round. This means that the candidate who obtains the most votes, even without reaching 50%, wins the election and becomes a member of parliament. If the three-way race is confirmed, the three candidates who have collected more than 12.5% of the votes of registered voters will be competing next Sunday, in the absence of a majority in the first round. It is not uncommon for this situation to occur, particularly in constituencies that are very divided in terms of voting.