The prolongation of the war and the end of easy ways may reduce European support for Ukraine, experts say.
EU countries are in the middle of the holiday season. At the same time, Russia is grinding its full-scale war in Ukraine.
Last Thursday, in the middle of the day, Russia launched a missile attack on the center of the city of Vinnytsia in western Ukraine. The missiles killed 23 people, including a 4-year-old Liza Dmitrievawhose funeral became a news topic around the world.
However, the energy crisis, inflation and record heat have gradually displaced war news in European domestic politics and the media. To top it all off, the EU institutions are going on summer vacation.
If the EU countries turn their eyes mainly to their own problems and the war takes a back seat, the support given to Ukraine may weaken.
The EU is threatened by war fatigue.
1. In warfare there is a threat of numbness, in arms aid there is a risk of running out of material
Round-the-clock media drumming and general interest are turning into commonplace. This is what the former intelligence chief of the Defense Forces, Major General (evp) says Pekka Toveri.
– People even get tired of the Russians bombing population centers and killing women and children. Governments also become numb when they have other problems. This has been seen in all crises, says Toveri.
Arms aid from the EU to Ukraine continues, but Ukraine has received the most significant weapon systems from the United States. The medium-range HIMARS rocket launchers have caused real difficulties for Russia in recent weeks.
Is there a danger that the EU’s arms aid to Ukraine will wane?
– I don’t see any signs of this yet, but it is a danger. If the European economy continues to weaken during the fall and winter, many governments will be under pressure to lead a more peaceful life. Then the interest in providing armed aid also fades.
Another question, according to Tover, is whether there is anything left to give in the weapons stockpiles of EU countries.
– Quite a few armed forces have given away their surplus equipment and part of their operational equipment, and new ones cannot be replaced quickly. Putting the defense industry on a war footing in Europe takes time.
2. Sanctions have hit Russia, but all means will soon be used
But the EU is much more of an economic giant than a military giant.
Economic sanctions instead of missiles are an extension of the EU’s diplomacy. According to statistics, they have had an impact on Russia.
– Russians have become 13–15 percent poorer. The value of imports in the country has dropped by half. Industry dependent on imported components, such as the manufacture of cars or household appliances, is in great difficulty, says the research manager Iikka Korhonen from the Bank of Finland.
How much do the sanctions hurt the military industry? It is not known exactly, but there are indications.
– The advanced products of the military industry use the same semiconductors as in other industries. When a country is largely isolated, it will be difficult for it to produce advanced equipment in the long term, says Korhonen.
But since the price of energy has skyrocketed, Russia’s export earnings have not decreased, but on the contrary increased.
In addition, the EU does not have much new means of sanctions left when the Russian oil import ban has come into force at the end of the year. The ban on natural gas would be the last decisive step, but the EU does not want to regulate it and the initiative in the matter seems to have slipped to Russia anyway.
– Next, we have to think about how to influence Russia’s oil exports to, say, India or China. It is not as simple as own sanctions, says Korhonen.
3. Can EU politicians cope when the Russian mill grinds?
Russia has not given up an inch in five months.
It grinds its war without caring about the consequences for the economy or human life. The style is like from another planet compared to the EU way of doing politics.
– In many EU countries, the crisis is seen as more complicated all the time, and they are trying to fine-tune it. [Venäjän presidentti Vladimir] Putin again, not fine-tuning, but looking for other countries’ weaknesses, says the director of the Foreign Policy Institute Mika Aaltola.
In other words, the “complication” of the matter suits Putin.
Can the EU continue to support Ukraine in the midst of all the power mixing?
– War travels badly. The further away the war is, the more one’s own neighborhood and its concerns come to the fore, says Aaltola.
Aaltola reminds us that the EU is not a unitary actor, but the sum of the views of 27 countries. However, he believes that the EU’s grip will hold.
– I would assume that there won’t be much fatigue or fatigue. The geopolitical threat keeps the decision-makers on their toes.
Is there any war weariness to be seen? Discuss the topic at the link below. The discussion is open until 11 pm on Wednesday.