Updated 00.32 | Published 00.27
Putin is biding his time to implement his long-term plan for Ukraine.
If everything goes Russia’s way, the goal is to conquer large parts of the country within 36 months, writes Bild.
Sources in the Kremlin state that they are also drawing up a strategy for “sham negotiations” on peace.
The bad news has come in spades for Ukraine in recent times.
The US Congress has not been able to agree on a budget to continue financing the country in the war against Russia. The White House budget chief has warned that the money is about to run out.
This week, Hungary blocked a proposal from the European Commission to support Ukraine with approximately SEK 560 billion in loans and grants over a four-year period.
Plan until 2026
At the same time, the offensive is slow.
In Russia, the situation looks brighter.
The German newspaper Bild now states, with reference to inside sources, that Russia is sketching a plan that extends beyond 2026 where the goal is to occupy a larger part of Ukraine than the four regions it has conquered so far.
The military think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) mentions the data in his latest analysis of the state of the war.
The stated plan from the Kremlin includes the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and parts of Kharkiv by 2024.
Hoping for US help
Putin also wants to capture large parts of Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk and more of Kharkiv, including the city of Kharkiv, in 2025 and 2026.
According to the same source, Russia hopes to hold the current front in Kherson along the Dnieper River. To the south, people are only concerned about the risk that Ukrainian troops can advance towards the occupied peninsula of Crimea.
The plan is to be based on continued expansion of military production, annual losses of upwards of 100,000 soldiers and a hope that the US will elect a president in the election next year who will dramatically reduce or completely stop military support to Ukraine.
Joe Biden has put a lot of political capital on continued support for Ukraine. If the Republicans, in which case ex-president Donald Trump is likely to win the election, things look darker for President Zelenskyi and his military leadership.
Lavrov threatens
Bild also writes that Russia intends to act so that “sham negotiations” on peace are started while continuing to carry out offensive operations inside Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threatened Ukraine on Friday that they should start negotiations with Russia as soon as possible.
He believes that the country’s negotiating position will be far too weak if Russia succeeds in conquering more territory.
ISW writes that Bild’s information cannot be confirmed, but that in December 2021, before the war, the newspaper published “largely true intelligence information about the Russian plans for a total invasion of Ukraine”.
It is also believed that the alleged plan is in line with what has been noticed about the Russian preparations for a protracted war.
Statements from Putin and other Russian leaders recently indicate that offensive operations are being planned to conquer more of Ukraine, ISW believes.