Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Finland’s NATO membership would not hurt. The bad news is that Putin will not always retaliate immediately but later, says a researcher interviewed by .
Heikki Heiskanen,
Elina Rantalainen
At the weekend, Finland was tense over Russia’s reaction to Finland’s decision to apply for NATO membership. For many, including the President of the Republic, Sauli Niinistö, it came as a surprise that the President Vladimir Putin the reactions were quite calm.
We asked Russian foreign policy experts whether Finns can now be at peace with Russia. The director answered the questions Markku Kangaspuro and postdoctoral researcher Margarita Zavadskaya From the Alexander Institute of the University of Helsinki, Director of the Research Council Tuomas Forsberg From the University of Helsinki and a leading researcher Blue Flower Island About the Foreign Policy Institute.
1. Can Finns sigh with relief now?
Yes and no. Experts consider Russia’s peaceful response to be good news in themselves, but point out that the matter may come before the Finns later.
– It has been in line with Russia’s operating model in the past that the reactions to the notification of the actual connection decision have been milder than the threats that preceded the decision, says Tuomas Forsberg.
However, he said, it is possible that some kind of retaliation is planned later.
– Putin does not always retaliate immediately, but later, and then it will be sweeter.
Sinikukka Saari estimates that there are still situations in which Russia will be able to express its dissatisfaction.
– It may be that at some point Finland needs something from Russia, but Russia does not agree to cooperate. But I don’t think there are any large-scale disinformation campaigns or other attempts to influence public opinion ahead.
Markku Kangaspuro reminds that Russia stated at the mouth of both the Foreign Minister and President Putin that joining NATO does not in itself pose a threat to the country. What practical membership will bring in practice will be more significant for Russia.
– However, they have referred to the next steps, questions about the establishment of military bases and the introduction of weapon systems into Finnish territory, he says.
According to Margarita Zavadskaya, Finns should remain vigilant, although she does not personally expect Russia to be very active in the matter, and especially not to attack Finland.
– That would be a very silly move. On the other hand, we must remember that Russia’s political regime is a person-driven dictatorship, and there are no obstacles to political decision-making. Because Putin himself and his military allies lack reliable expertise, even stupid transfers are possible.
Zavadskaya points out that transfers can be fast.
– They can still change their position. Political decision-making in Russia is very hectic and undisciplined. We have seen examples of this in recent months.
2. Was Putin’s reaction surprising?
Putin’s calm attitude to President Niinistö’s announcement did not really surprise the researchers. It has been clear that a country at war in Ukraine does not have the resources to divert resources to its strange response.
– I think the reaction was expected. The Kremlin’s official position is that there are no territorial disputes between Finland and Russia. They are not very enthusiastic about Finland becoming part of NATO, but they are taking it a little lighter than the case of Ukraine, Margarita Zavadskaya says.
He estimates that Finland is on the periphery of Putin’s own worldview. Since it is a person-driven regime, most decisions are based on what Putin thinks and what the world looks like to him.
On the other hand, even tougher phrases could have been expected from Putin.
– It would have been entirely possible that they would have chosen a tougher rhetoric. Now it seems that the recognition of the facts and the conclusions to be drawn from it are paramount for the time being, Kangaspuro says.
However, the slight reaction can be considered surprising in the sense that preventing NATO enlargement is the main goal of Russia’s foreign policy, Saari says.
– Of course there is a certain type of contradiction here. In that sense, this was surprising.
Forsberg was not surprised because he knew how to expect a surprise.
– I said in an interview that something always comes as a surprise, but it may come as a surprise to Finns that there will be nothing more special.
3. Why was Russia’s reaction as it was?
Experts agree that Russia’s mild reaction is partly explained by Russia’s hostilities in Ukraine. It is therefore partly a shortage of resources, as Sinikukka Saari puts it. And while NATO enlargement is at war with Russia’s goals, from a military strategic point of view, the change is not very great, according to Forsberg.
– Russia has already assumed that Finland and Sweden will co-operate with NATO countries.
Of course, even strong speeches have been made. Russia has multilevel statements conveying the message of those in power. President Putin himself may use more moderate language than the harsh Foreign Ministry spokesman Marija Zaharova and there are more and more harsh political commentators on television talk shows.
In Russia, however, it is known that harsh speeches may not have any effect.
– There has been such a strong consensus in Finland to apply for NATO that Russia may not consider it right to have a gripping surface for various attempts to influence or wedge into public opinion, Saari says
– I think they came to a realistic conclusion that a tougher response would not change anything, but would make the situation worse, Kangaspuro estimates.
– It is likely that in this response they will try to influence how Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership will affect foreign policy relations and what kind of possible military tension will arise at our borders, Kangaspuro continues.
Raising more and more could not have made Russia look weak in the eyes of its citizens and the international public.
– Putin does not support the message that Finland and Sweden are joining NATO against Russia’s will and that Putin could not prevent it, Forsberg says.
Here, too, Zavadskaya emphasizes Putin’s sovereignty.
– As Finland is not really at the top of his priorities, it explains why his response is less aggressive than one might have expected.
Through its controlled media, the Kremlin has sold its citizens the story that Finland and Sweden were already practically in NATO and nothing has really changed.