There is no support for the war from the neighboring allies, and the plunge of the Russian economy threatens to take them away, writes ‘s St. Petersburg journalist Simo Ortamo.
If Russia was to strengthen its position in its own neighborhood by attacking Ukraine, the results would not look very good.
On the contrary, most of its allies are now trying their best not to interfere in the war.
Russia has a dominant position in the former Soviet Union, with the exception of the Baltics, Georgia and Ukraine. The closest allies are members of the Russian-controlled military alliance ODKB (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union. Other countries also have strong ties with Russia.
In the future, it may be even more difficult for Russia to keep its grip on an area that it considers to be within its own sphere of interest.
In recent days, Russia has tried to get its allies to support its attack. The Syrian regime is sending “volunteers” to the war, but otherwise the result has been poor.
Even Belarus, Ukraine’s most important ally in the war, does not seem to be rushing to war.
Russian forces are operating from its territory, but so far Belarus’s own armed forces have not taken part in the attack, at least in no significant way.
It is unclear whether the reason is that Belarus is leading Alexander Lukashenko procrastination or an insurgency in the army that has been rumored by the Belarusian exile In Israel Hayom. (switch to another service)
Kazakhstan is Russian the main ally in Central Asia. In January, unrest erupted over the rise in fuel prices in Kazakhstan, which was suppressed by the regime with the help of the Russian armed forces.
At the time, it was widely assumed that Russia had gained an even tighter grip on Kazakhstan, which had previously been able to maintain effective relations with the West and China as well.
Kazakhstan has sought to present itself as a peace-building country, but providing assistance to Russia’s other side is still a significant gesture. The regime has probably had to take into account the fact that the Kazakhs do not support the war.
Anti-war moods appear to be common in Russia’s allies.
Although Russia’s allies are exclusively sovereign, with the exception of Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, they cannot completely ignore public opinion.
Perhaps that is why, of the countries in the region, only Russia and Belarus voted against the UN resolution in early March.
Sanctions on Russia do not facilitate its ability to hold Allies in its grip. The economies of the countries belonging to the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in particular threaten to plunge with Russia.
The deteriorating economic situation and unjust administration have triggered protests in recent years in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, among others.
It is entirely possible that an attack on Ukraine will bring Russia more problems in an area that it has long considered its own backyard.
This is ‘s daily analysis of the current theme of the Russian invasion.
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