“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty,” said Winston Churchill, the man who did not despair in the face of the Nazi bombings. If we follow the reasoning of the British leader, then the year 2024, which sees the continuation of two deadly wars watched by the whole world (in Ukraine and Gaza), promises to be full of promise.…
In the coming months, the threats will be innumerable: Russia’s rise in power in Ukraine, general conflagration in the Middle East, Chinese military pressure on Taiwan, North Korean provocations, Iran’s access to the atomic bomb, increasingly close cooperation between Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang… And this, during a year which will include more than 70 elections across the planet, including the American presidential election.
For Europeans, the main catastrophe would be a military collapse of Ukraine, for lack of sufficient Western aid. “It would be the start of an endless war, because the Russians would be encouraged to continue their expansionist strategy and would attack other countries,” summarizes former ambassador Michel Duclos. “All of Europe would be weakened.”
The conflicts of 2024.
© / Legends Cartography
A Europe left to itself
This dark scenario would be more likely to come true if Donald Trump, who would probably stop American support for kyiv, returned to power. A prospect all the more worrying as the Republican could call into question American commitment to NATO. “A Trump victory is the risk that dominates all others. We would be left to our own devices, in a state of flagrant military insufficiency in the face of a Russia which is relaunching its arms production and continuing to receive significant revenues from it. “international”, insists diplomat François Heisbourg, special advisor to the Foundation for Strategic Research. A tidal wave of the far right in the European elections would only complicate the European reaction.
Another hot spot is the Middle East, where a possible headlong flight from the Netanyahu government is causing serious concern. At a time when tensions continue to rise between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, American authorities fear that the Jewish state will launch an offensive against the Shiite militia, according to the Washington Post. They particularly fear that the opening of a new front, which would be devastating for the Lebanese population, will weaken the Israeli army and lead to regional escalation. “After having sworn to eradicate Hamas, Israel could see Hezbollah in Lebanon as a threat that has become unacceptable. It would then be difficult to imagine that Iran could accept the military destruction of its ally without intervening,” points out geopolitologist Bruno Tertrais.
Some also fear that Vladimir Putin has given ideas to other warmongers, like the Azerbaijani autocrat Ilham Aliyev, who seized power last year by force. Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and might not stop there. “From the moment there is no longer a gendarme, all the frozen or dormant conflicts can erupt,” notes Michel Duclos.
But the worst is not always certain and dictators are not eternal. The year may have some good surprises in store for us. What if, for example, in a low probability scenario, the American election was not played out like four years ago between Donald Trump (78 years old) and Joe Biden (81 years old), but between much younger candidates? , like Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis (the governor of Florida) on the Republican side; and Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom (California) on the Democratic side? We can dream…
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