According to Moscow Times Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov has confirmed that Russia is ready for direct negotiations, even though the Kremlin still believes that Zelenskyj is an “illegitimate” president.
Behind the changed attitude and rhetoric of both countries’ presidents are probably American pressure.
“For Ukraine, it is very important that there is no conversation between the United States and Russia, but Ukraine’s participation,” says Joakim Paasikivi, senior geopolitical adviser at Mannheimer Swartling.
Possible weapons arrest agreement
Zelenskyj has announced that he can think of talking to Putin – if that is the only way to peace, AFP reports. This is a change in Ukraine’s attitude, as the country has previously legislated against negotiations with the Russian leader.
A ceasefire agreement during this year could become a reality if the president of both countries sits down at the negotiating table, Joakim Paasiki believes.
– This in turn could lead to a peace agreement in the long run. But the question is how the negotiations will go. We don’t know anything yet about the US plan, will Ukraine receive continued support, has the United States promised sanctions to Russia? Which is something that the Americans could “suck” with to get Putin to the negotiating table, says Paasikivi.
Clarification at the Security Conference
Washington’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Michael Kellogg, is expected to give additional signals at the Security Conference in Munich soon. The fact that the United States is now talking about “allies” who is ready to cooperate gives a new dynamic, especially in the light of Donald Trump’s previous criticism of its allies in Europe.
– It is positive that you talk about allies from the Americans, when Trump has attacked allies like Denmark, says Paasikivi.
At the same time, Russia is being pushed financially. Trump has threatened Russia with further sanctions unless one sits at the negotiating table.
Oil price pushes Russia’s economy
“The question is whether it is enough for Russia to join a compromise peace,” says Paasikivi.
Trump also wants OPEC to lower the oil price, to further push Putin.
– Ukraine’s repeated drone attacks have hit 20 of the country’s 30 major refineries, so it is a severe pressure against Russia. If production is down for months, there will be further problems for the Russian economy, says Paasikivi.