New honeymoon for the Russian president Vladimir Putin and the President-elect of the United States Donald Trump’s sometimes it has already started. This is the assessment of a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute specializing in Russia Jussi Lassila.
Putin congratulated Trump and praised him as a brave man when he spoke yesterday Thursday in Sochi.
– Trump’s behavior at the time of the assassination attempt on him impressed me. He proved to be a brave man, Putin said.
As late as Wednesday, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the United States remains an unfriendly nation and that relations between the two countries are historically bad.
Lassila reflects that Putin couldn’t wait to praise Trump any longer.
– Licking may be a bit too harsh a term, but Putin can’t help but show his enthusiasm, says Lassila.
– The Kremlin has high expectations for the Trump era, and Putin revealed it here.
Lassila considers it possible that Trump will be charmed by Putin’s praise, at least for a while.
– After all, it has been said that Trump is very weak to flattery and praise. It can have an effect, and that’s what Putin is probably trying to do.
At the level of speeches, the differences may warm up, but according to Lassila, it is not necessarily reflected in actions.
See in the video how Putin and Trump met at the summit held in Helsinki in the summer of 2018:
“There was a Trump craze in Russian propaganda”
Russia has tried to give the impression that it does not care about who is elected president of the United States.
In September, Putin even claimed that he would like the Democrats Terrible about Harris president because he has such a charming and infectious laugh. The statement has been interpreted as a joke.
In fact, according to Lassila, people in Russia were nervous and tense about the result of the presidential election.
– In Russia, many hopes have been placed on the fact that Trump will win. A certain kind of Trump craze has been seen in Russian propaganda.
Russian state television channels openly favored Republican Trump before the election. At the same time, they beat the Democrats’ Harris.
Lassila says that despite its defiance, Russia is insecure. It sees its room for maneuver in international politics largely depending on what the United States does.
– In other words, the exact opposite of what it publicly claims.
Russia wants to drive Ukraine into a forced crevice
Trump said during his election campaign that he could end Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine in a day. Trump has claimed that he has a good relationship with both Putin and the Ukrainian president to Volodymyr Zelensky.
In Sochi, Putin said Trump deserves to be heard.
Researcher Jussi Lassila estimates that one of Putin’s goals is to negotiate Ukraine directly with the United States.
– The goal would be to drive Ukraine into a forced retreat and keep the EU out of the negotiations as much as possible. Russia’s hope in the Trump era is for US-EU relations to go into a knot, Lassila lists.
Trump has been tipped to propose freezing the war. Ukraine has announced that it will not accept demands for territorial cessions.
– Yes, there will certainly be a proposal to freeze the front lines, but it remains to be seen how it will be realized in the end.
Russia’s expectations may not be met
Lassila says that Russia may be disappointed by Trump’s unpredictability.
– You have to be careful and prepare for all kinds of suggestions. However, I doubt that they would materialize according to Russia’s expectations.
Freezing the US arms aid to Ukraine and Ukraine’s NATO membership may come up on the table. According to information from the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s team would consider freezing Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years.
Lassila reminds that Trump does not decide on matters in the United States alone, even if his way of thinking creates uncertainty.
Putin and Trump do not decide the fate of Ukraine, but Trump can, for example, start blackmailing with military aid.
– From the point of view of Ukraine, it is an unfortunate situation that in Trump’s world view, the issue of Ukraine is completely secondary. Trump’s interests lie elsewhere.
Both Trump and Putin have indicated that they are willing to talk in the near future. According to Lassila, not much can be expected from the discussion.