If the change of mind of Russian President Vladimir Putin is also conveyed in deeds, it would be a huge relief for Finnish decision-makers, writes foreign journalist Simo Ortamo.
16.5. 17:52 • Updated May 16th. 18:29
According to Putin, Russia has no problems with Finland or Sweden, and therefore NATO’s expansion into these countries is not a direct threat to Russia. Instead, bringing NATO’s military infrastructure to Finland or Sweden will lead to retaliation.
The tone of the comment is more conciliatory than in December. At the time, Putin said Russia could not accept NATO’s expansion to the east at all.
A taste of the new tone was obtained already this weekend, when Putin commented moderately on Finland’s NATO membership intentions in his call to the President. Sauli Niinistö with.
If Putin’s words are also conveyed in deeds, it would be a huge relief for Finnish decision-makers. Finland has been concerned about pressure from Russia during the membership process, when NATO security guarantees are not yet in force.
A less steep line cannot be said for sure, because the speeches and actions of the Russian leadership have often been contradictory in the past. Until the last minute, Russia denied that it was attacking Ukraine.
Why has Putin now shifted his goal top? From the outside, this is impossible to say, but some guesses can be made.
It is well understood in Russia that it is very difficult to influence Finland’s NATO intentions anymore. Behind the membership is the leadership of the state, the majority of MPs and the vast majority of citizens.
It is difficult to imagine ways in which this setup could be further changed.
Intimidation of the hard class would require the movement of armed forces to the Finnish border as an effect. These forces are not available right now. The majority of Russian peacekeeping forces are fighting in Ukraine. The troops stationed in the garrisons in Finland’s neighboring areas have reportedly suffered considerable losses.
It is therefore easier to swallow their losses and move on to new demands.
So Putin doesn’t want to, that NATO military infrastructure is being brought to Finland and Sweden. This, he said, would be a threat to Russia. Putin did not elaborate on what he meant by that.
In principle, all forces in NATO member countries are NATO forces. When Finland joins NATO, its forces in Finland will grow by the same amount as the Defense Forces. However, this is hardly the case.
At least in the past, Russia has opposed the establishment of NATO missile systems and common bases near NATO borders.
For example, the Baltic countries and Poland have NATO international bases designed to prevent Russian aggression. In addition, NATO has US missile defense bases in Romania and Poland, although in Poland the missiles will not be operational until this year.
According to Putin, retaliation depends on the nature of the threat.
According to many experts, Russia sees military security as a zero-sum game. If military force is added somewhere, Russia must respond to the same extent.
In the longer term, Putin’s demand may affect Finland’s position on potential NATO bases.
In the public debate, the so-called Norwegian model has been hailed in Finland from time to time. Norway has outlined that it does not want NATO permanent bases or nuclear weapons on its soil during peacetime. The reason has been precisely the desire to keep the gap with the Soviet Union and then with Russia.
Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen (center) said in parliament on Monday that Finland does not intend to impose such conditions on the NATO accession treaty. Instead, Finland can later align its relationship with nuclear weapons and bases with a separate declaration.
President Sauli Niinistö has said that his NATO stance turned positive in December when Putin wanted to deny NATO enlargement.
By the same token, Finland should now oppose demands that no bases be set up here. Otherwise, Finland would hand over decision-making power over its own security to Russia.
On the other hand, the whole debate is quite theoretical.
NATO members are not very keen on setting up new and expensive bases. The NATO bases in the Baltic countries were set up only after years of lobbying and Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine in 2014.