LONDON US president Donald Trump claims to shine as a deal, but the Russian president Vladimir Putin pulls the cords more skillful. This is how the Russian expert, Bloomberg Economic Investigator Stephanie Baker.
Already in the 1990s, he followed a journalist in Russian cash flows in Moscow. His latest book Punishing Putin charts the success of sanctions against Russia and the cash flows of oligarchs.
Stephanie Baker believes that Vladimir Putin Can deal with the US President known for his unpredictability.
“As a former KGB man, Putin can manipulate Trump with flattery and tell what he wants to hear,” says Baker.
In addition to flattery, Trump appeals to money. Putin has attracted Trump with profitable deals to US companies. According to the White House, Trump and Putin spoke in their call last Tuesday about improving economic relationships and “huge financial contracts” when peace in Ukraine.
Putin is playing time
According to Baker, Putin also plays a long game while negotiating with Trump about the peace of Ukraine.
– Putin thinks time is on his side. He considers Trump’s desire to be so desperate that he would agree to cooperate, even if Putin is not ready to make concessions, Baker describes in London.
According to Baker, Putin manipulated Trump to believe that Trump won in a telephone conversation between leaders. This is despite the fact that Putin rejected an absolute ceasefire. Ukraine had already agreed to it. Trump, on the other hand, looks willing to relax sanctions against Russia.
Trump’s deal wouldn’t tempt companies to return
Although Donald Trump would like to break the sanctions, Baker does not believe that companies and banks will easily return to the Russian market.
– I estimated that no Western company would lift their hands and sign up to return to Russia. Many of them sold their assets cheaply when Russia attacked Ukraine. Russia is seen as a geopolitical risk, no matter what Trump says, he estimates.
Baker believes that Russia’s negotiating power should not be underestimated. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov And many Putin’s foreign policy advisors have been educated for international negotiations for decades.
“Negatrics sent to Saudi Arabia for many negotiations are one of Russia’s smartest operators,” says Baker.
In the video below, Stephanie Baker tells how Putin manipulates Trump.
The weak point of Putin
Putin then does Putin have a weak spot? According to Baker, Putin can only get concessions by showing military and financial power.
Trump should show that the United States is ready to add military assistance to Ukraine and tighten sanctions against Russia if Putin does not make concessions, Baker says.
– Putin is like a mafia boss. If it appears weak, die. He only responds, Baker describes.
Sanctions failed due to oil
Sanctions have paid hundreds of billions of dollars to the Russian state, but they have not driven Russian troops out of Ukraine.
“In a way, sanctions have failed, but they have made it difficult for Putin’s ability to finance and continue war,” says Baker.
Removing sanctions is one of Putin’s key demands, suggesting that the Russian economy suffers, Baker estimates. 40 % of the country’s budget goes to defense. It is 6 % of GDP.
Putin claims that warfare stimulates the economy. Baker disagrees.
– Interest rates have risen to 21 %. Both shopping malls and car dealerships warn bankruptcies. Inflation is 10 % and the central bank’s actions do not reduce it, he lists.
Baker predicts the future by checking the ruble exchange rate and oil prices every day. The ruble has strengthened since Trump’s inauguration. According to Baker, it tells about Russia’s confidence that Trump is relieving sanctions.
The price of oil, on the other hand, has fallen. It weakens the Russian budget and makes war difficult.
Baker believes that oil is the biggest reason for the failure of sanctions. There were not enough strong sanctions against it because the West was afraid of its own standard of living and the high rise in oil prices in the world market.
By complicating oil exports, Russia’s warfare would be significantly more difficult.
– It would be the most useful way for Europe and Britain to implement economic sanctions and put pressure on Putin. The importance of oil revenue for the war is huge, he says.
This would help if the oil tankers that damage the underwater cables in the Baltic Sea were already stopped due to a possible environmental risk, Baker estimates. He considers it a miracle that the accident has not yet happened. Ships insurance must be checked and complicated by Russia’s ability to earn money with oil exports, Baker says.
The oil has kept the Russian war machine running. President Joe Biden It was only at the end of their term to tighten oil sanctions. Baker thought it was too late. Trump’s plans are difficult to anticipate.
Middle East and China are bolstating Putin
Russia is also helped by warm relationships with the wealthy states of the Middle East. Oligarchs and oil traders have moved to the major cities of the United Arab Emirates Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Baker also emphasizes China’s importance to Russia’s Russian ability to continue the war. China is buying more and more oil from Russia and taking supplies that can be used for both civilian use and warfare. Russia has also ended up in China’s semiconductors of Western companies.
Baker considers many Trump advisers to the view that Russia’s relationships are being defended by the threat of China, wrong. Russia is so dependent on China that it could not turn against its superpower neighbor.