At the end of September, the Russian forces had just suffered a major defeat in eastern Ukraine, when a call came from Moscow via an encrypted line.
The caller was the president Vladimir Putin. He ordered the troops not to retreat, even though the battle of Lyman City was already lost.
Putin seemed to have a completely wrong idea of the reality of the war, say high-ranking Russian sources For The Wall Street Journal (you are moving to another service).
The newspaper interviewed Russian officials and people close to the Kremlin for several months for its story, which appeared on December 23.
Researcher on Russia at the Foreign Policy Institute, program director Arkady Moshes according to the situation indicates that Putin has been isolated by his own power machinery.
– Putin only uses and trusts information sources and reports of the secret service, says Moshes.
Putin refuses to use the internet
President Putin wakes up every morning at seven o’clock and receives a written briefing about the war. The information has been carefully edited to highlight successes and downplay setbacks, say a former Russian intelligence officer and current administration officials For The Wall Street Journal (you are moving to another service).
– Those who work for the manager give the kind of information that the manager wants to hear, states Arkady Moshes.
During Putin’s reign, officials have learned that in order to receive praise and promotions, they must exaggerate the good news and downplay the bad.
It is feared that the bad news will upset “Father”, sources tell the Wall Street Journal. “Father” is Putin’s nickname.
The same nickname was once used for Russian tsars.
According to Arkady Moshes, it seems that Putin himself also wants to receive a modified truth and believe in it.
– This could be called self-manipulation, summarizes Moshes.
Putin has long refused to use the internet because he fears digital espionage. He doesn’t trust the media either.
– Putin believes that the media is always controlled by someone. He has been doing this himself for decades. He is a veteran of propaganda and media war, says Moshes.
of The Washington Post (you will switch to another service) according to Putin’s isolation is also visible internationally. During the corona pandemic and the war, he has made only a few visits abroad, for example to Belarus, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Many former supporters have turned their backs on Putin. The Pope has compared the Russian attack to the mass murder of the Jews.
Putin’s sources of information
In September, Putin met with the leader of China Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan and asserted that the war was under Russian control. At the same time, Russian forces were losing battles and retreating hundreds of kilometers.
According to Arkady Moshes, Putin must have known about the losses.
– We cannot assume that Putin is completely in the dark. For example, the decision to withdraw troops from Kherson could only be made by Putin alone, says Moshes.
On the other hand, updates on the war front can take several days to reach Putin’s desk.
The sources of The Wall Street Journal tell about the complicated flow of information.
First, front-line commanders report to the security service FSB, which edits the reports for Security Council experts. These, in turn, forward them to Putin’s right-hand man, the Secretary General of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushevwhich forwards the reports to Putin.
Patrushev has been part of Putin’s inner circle since they were young KGB officers in Leningrad.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment to The Wall Street Journal. He stated that all activities surrounding Putin’s “special operation” are classified as state secrets.
Even before the attack, Putin received embellished information about Ukraine. A businessman belonging to Putin’s inner circle Viktor Medvedchuk assured that Ukrainians considered themselves Russians and would welcome the invaders with flowers, two official sources told The Wall Street Journal.
The sources also say that in the reports to Moscow, the good news is written in large font on the front page and the bad news is left at the end.
The gap between Putin and the elite is deepening
However, many Russian military experts and foreign policy experts warned Putin before the war. Among other things, a former colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok has spoken publicly that the attack was a big mistake. He later retracted his remarks.
Criticism of the war has grown in Russia over the past six months. War correspondents who support Putin have also criticized the war very harshly.
– This criticism has certainly reached Putin. But how he reacts to it is a different matter, says Moshes.
The gap between Putin and the elite also seems to be growing.
The Washington Post (you are moving to another service) says that part of the elite is frustrated with the president’s actions, and Putin feels he is alone. In December, Putin canceled his New Year’s meeting with Russia’s richest businessmen. It is seen as further deepening the gap between him and the elite.
Part of the elite still supports Putin and the war. Supporters are especially among the leaders of the military industry, who benefit from the huge amount of money coming into the arms business.
– The Russian economy runs largely because the arms industry runs, sums up Moshes.
The ranks of the elite are also split between the Russian army and the security service. The FSB runs the country and determines the course of the war, but its strategy and decisions do not always please the military leadership.
– This has led to a situation where information from the battlefield is not realistic and different parties use the information against each other, says Moshes.
When the conquest of Kiev at the very beginning of the war failed, the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu reports (you are moving to another service) To Putin via video link: “Vladimir Vladimirovich, everything is going according to plan. We will report this to you every day.”
Putin’s future at the helm of Russia
Russia has been Putin’s Russia for more than 20 years, and now Putin is 70 years old.
Moshes believes that Putin will remain in power at least for the next year. Putin does not want to lose his power and neither do his close circle, unless there is a radical change in the war.
– However, some force of change will come. This is what history has always shown, says Moshes.
He believes that after Putin, Russia will open up, but the problem is the country’s age-old excessive patriotism.
– Whether the Russian people will use their opportunity when it comes – no one knows, Moshes states.
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