Fifty seconds can sometimes seem like an eternity, especially for Vladimir Putin. The Russian president is not the type to see the tempo dictated, even less to wait like a green plant. In Tehran, however, on July 19, the heir to the tsars must hanging around for endless seconds standing alone in front of a pack of journalists as embarrassed and silent as he was. A moment of embarrassment that only one man can inflict on him without fear of terrible reprisals: the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Seeing him enter the room, Putin can’t help but let out a broad smile.
A duo of particularly close presidents
The two men know each other by heart. Putin took the reins of Russia in 2000, Erdogan those of Turkey in 2003. Since then, they have each in their own way confiscated power in their country and have been able to use each other on the international scene. No other presidential duo calls each other so regularly, and the two leaders have seen each other around 30 times in person since 2016.
Even at the height of the war in Ukraine, Putin’s radioactive aura does not bother Erdogan, who left to sign a battery of contracts on Russian soil in early August. The Turkish president even accuses the West of “provoking” Moscow and sets himself up as the first defender of the Kremlin. While its Russian ally attacks Ukraine, it threatens to invade the Greek islands of the Aegean Sea. “These are two leaders who know how to tell each other things frankly, they are in a transactional relationship and seek to find compromises, underlines Isabelle Facon, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research and director of the book Russia-Turkey. A challenge to the West? (Past tense, April 2022). Russian-Turkish relations could have slipped many times in recent years, but each time a meeting or a phone call between the two men helped to defuse the risk of a crisis.
This complicity comes to light in Ukraine. Tayyip Erdogan has succeeded in establishing himself as the sole mediator of the conflict, where Emmanuel Macron and Israel have failed. The Turk notably succeeded in negotiating the lifting of the blockade of tons of cereals stuck in Ukrainian ports, even as his Bayraktar drones bombard Russian troops in the Donbass. “Erdogan has become unavoidable on the Ukrainian file, even if it does not please many people in Brussels, blows a European diplomat. Today, no one doubts that if peace negotiations take place one day between Russia and the Ukraine, they will not take place in Minsk or Paris, but in Ankara.”
Russia and Turkey, hereditary enemies over the centuries
This special relationship between the tsar and the sultan was not self-evident. It even has everything to surprise historians. Since the 16th century, 13 wars have opposed Russia to the Ottoman Empire, most often with Russian victories and conquests. “Historically, Turkey and Russia are fierce enemies, points out Marc Pierini, Middle East specialist at the Carnegie Europe think tank and former European Union ambassador to Ankara. But today, in a world where conflicts are infinitely more complex than before, they manage to manage an antinomic and even cooperative relationship.” And above all, 13 wars also mean 13 peace.
From the beginning of his reign, Putin understood the importance of a good relationship with Ankara. In 2004, he was the first Russian leader to visit Turkey for thirty years, and signed six partnership contracts on this occasion. The first stone of what today looks like Turkey’s economic dependence on Russia: 45% of its gas comes from Moscow, as does the majority of its cereals and 4.5 million annual tourists. A complicated position for Erdogan, who himself explained in September 2008, just after the war in Georgia: “The United States are our allies, but the Russians are our strategic neighbours. When we buy two-thirds of our energy from Russia and that country is our biggest trading partner…our allies have to understand us.”
Thus, despite permanent subjects of tension, the two men avoided that their estrangements did not turn into conflict. In Syria, Libya or Asia Minor, Moscow and Ankara are always on opposite sides. “Their relationship reminds me of a cold peace, with the two presidents constantly having to watch over their shoulders,” analyzes Sinan Ciddi, Turkey specialist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington DC. is neither a partnership nor an alliance, rather a carefully coordinated dance that allows both parties to prosper.”
The failed coup of July 2016, a turning point in the Putin-Erdogan relationship
Only once, in 2015, Erdogan and Putin were on the brink. On November 24, a Russian fighter plane coming from Syria was shot down by Turkish aircraft. Ankara assures that the Russian bomber violated its airspace, Moscow considers this act as a hostile statement. “Some even feared at the time that this disaster could lead to a conflict between Russia and NATO, recalls Isabelle Facon. Tensions were enormous, but Russia only took economic sanctions, which were certainly significant. Erdogan ended up sending a letter of apology to Putin but their relationship remained fresh, until the coup attempt that sealed a reconciliation between the two countries.
July 15, 2016 marks a turning point in modern Turkish history, but also in Erdogan’s relations with Russia. That night, soldiers launched a mutiny, seized the main Turkish television channels, bombed Parliament and the presidential palace. Sheltered, the reis managed to appeal to his supporters, who took to the streets and put an end to the coup. The next day, Erdogan launched massive purges.
A story then imposed itself in people’s minds, well helped by the Russian media: Putin would have warned Erdogan himself of the imminence of the coup d’etat, which would have enabled him to escape. A possibility, but impossible to verify. “Contrary to what the official Turkish media propagate, the first reaction was that of the European Union in the middle of the night, wishes to recall the diplomat Marc Pierini. All the European States gave their support to the Turkish institutions and elected officials, but they warned that in the corrective measures that were to come, the rule of law had to be respected. Russia? It supported Erdogan, and of course it omitted the question of the rule of law. In the end , in those days of panic, Russia appeared to be more genuinely in favor of Erdogan.” Three weeks after the failed coup, the Turkish leader was in Saint Petersburg to demand military protection for his presidential palace, before announcing, a few months later, the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system . Fury within NATO and Vladimir Putin’s masterstroke.
The second part of this story will be published on our site on Monday, September 12.