Find here the first episode of our story “Putin, Erdogan: the crazy choreography of two predators”.
If they oppose in Libya or in Syria, the two leaders are built on a feeling: the myth of the humiliation of the West. In his early days, however, Europeans saw hope in Erdogan, this young, charismatic, “moderate Islamist” and modern leader. But, from 2006, negotiations on Turkey’s accession to the European Union stumbled, and Ankara moved away from the European continent. Increasingly, Erdogan will rely on nationalist and Islamist movements to reign over his country. On the Russian side, the reproaches to the West are well known: enlargement of NATO, humiliation and incessant criticism of the internal functioning of Russia.
Erdogan, itchy hair of NATO
Difference in size between the two powers: Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1949. Cleverly, Putin knew how to use his partner Erdogan to divide the Atlantic Alliance. “The Russians invested a lot of time and energy, not necessarily money, to make sure Erdogan wreaked havoc on NATO,” said Sinan Ciddi. Regularly, the Turkish president is used as an itchy hair among the 30 members of the Atlantic Alliance. Latest episode: it blocked for several months the accession of two new members, Sweden and Finland, in the middle of the war in Ukraine. Holy bread for Putin. “Erdogan always seeks to show his solidity on the international scene, in particular when he has elections approaching, confides to us the former Secretary General of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Already in 2008 he opposed my candidacy as general secretary, but we had finally reached an agreement. It will be the same for Sweden and Finland.”
NATO can hardly complain: on Ukraine, Erdogan rather played his game. He supplied arms to kyiv and closed the Bosphorus Strait to Russian warships, but only after the start of the conflict. Here too, the Turkish president is handling the balance. “The Black Sea is Russia’s No. 1 priority, since it is the exit door for a majority of its international trade and its access to the Mediterranean, says Isabelle Facon. The fact that Turkey has always opposed a permanent NATO naval presence in the Black Sea is extremely important for the Russians, which explains why they agree to swallow a few snakes in Syria, Libya and even in the Caucasus.
This balance of power with the West benefits Erdogan on several levels. First electoral, his nationalist supporters praising this image of a strong man. Economic too, Turkey going through a financial storm for several months. Ankara has always refused to join the sanctions decided by the West against Moscow, and is making the most of it today. “Right now, Turkey and Erdogan are very popular in Russia, television channels are talking about it every day, and Turkish brands are replacing Western stores that have deserted, testifies Kerim Has, analyst in Moscow and specialist in Russian-Russian relations. Not only is Turkey not participating in the sanctions, but it is also turning into a haven for certain Russian financial activities…” In the past three months, Turkish exports to Russia have exploded, increasing by more than 50% in comparison from last year. In a Turkish economy in decline, with annual inflation reaching 80%, the relationship with Moscow is very much like a lifeline.
Putin wants to keep Erdogan on his throne
This is undoubtedly the main difference between the two men: unlike Putin, Erdogan still has to fear the outcome of the elections. Next June, he puts his throne back in play, and the polls are not in his favour. His coalition, a mixture of conservatives, ultra-nationalists and Islamists, is stagnating at 33% of voting intentions, far from being able to form a government. “Of course, over the past ten years, Erdogan has become much more authoritarian and autocratic, points out Sinan Ciddi, of Georgetown University. But he remains much more dependent on public opinion than any Russian leader will ever be. The president Turkish must face the pressure of the street, the economy, the media, civil society…”
The temptation is great for the Kremlin to help its best ally on the international scene to stay in power. And Erdogan understood this well. “Until the election, Turkish power will get even closer to Russia, warns Kerim Has. More than anything, Erdogan loves power and money. Russia is ready to offer him both.”
Kremlin favors are never free. In early September, Erdogan threatened to invade Greek islands and embarked on a military provocation of Europe. In this mad dance between the two autocrats, Europeans could well go from mere spectators to main victims.