Blaming Ukraine for the attack diverts attention from the fact that the Russian security service failed to prevent the attack, the researcher estimates.
Hanna Eskonen,
Sakari Nuuttila
President of Russia Vladimir Putin claimed in a televised speech that the terrorists who attacked a concert hall in Moscow tried to escape to Ukraine before they were caught. According to Putin, the Ukrainian authorities would have allowed the fleeing attackers to enter the country.
All those involved in the attack will be punished, Putin said.
The terrorist attack in Moscow escalates Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, assesses Russia expert, professor emeritus Markku Kivinen from the University of Helsinki.
– Although the Ukrainians have said that they are not behind this, Russia’s interpretation is immediately that the attack was organized by the Ukrainians, says Kivinen.
The Russian security service FSB already claimed earlier on Saturday that the attackers had connections to Ukraine. According to the United States, there is no indication of such a thing.
According to Kivinen, with the terrorist attack, the war will also come close to ordinary Russians, even if there is no direct connection to the war in Ukraine.
– The whole society is in a state of war, so this is connected in people’s minds above all to the ongoing war. The threat of violence has become everyday in a new way, says Kivinen.
According to Kivinen, the Russian administration can take advantage of reactions of fear and anger in ordinary people in Ukraine.
– The most worrying dimension here is what the so-called revenge will be, says Kivinen.
According to Kivinen, however, there is a connection to the Kremlin’s previous wars in the attack.
The Islamist extremist organization Isis-K, which claimed responsibility for the attack, has accused Russia of its military actions against Muslims. Vladimir Putin during the regime, Russia has fought wars in Syria and Chechnya, and the Soviet Union fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
– This is part of the long pressure wave of the war. Russia, like a great power, has acted aggressively, brutally and indifferently. It results in decades of burden to be carried.
Arkady Moshes: The situation on Finland’s eastern border may change
Program director of the Foreign Policy Institute Arkady Moshes says, blaming Ukraine for the attack is the easiest explanation for the Russian leadership.
According to Moshes, it takes attention away from the Russian security service.
– The intentions of ISIS have passed the security service. It would be more difficult for Putin to say that ISIS prepared the attack and it went unnoticed.
Moshes says that the threat of Islamist terrorism has disappeared from public discourse in Russia over the past ten years, even though in the past it has been an important theme for Putin. Moshes believes that the security service has also paid less attention to it.
Moshes says that Putin, who is starting a new presidential term, is unlikely to benefit politically from the attack.
– The last thing Putin needs is proof that his security service is not working well.
Moshes says that blaming Ukraine for the attack may, however, lead to an easier mobilization of people to the front. It is estimated that Russia is preparing for a new major attack in Ukraine.
– The attack could trigger a new anti-Ukraine wave in Russia.
Moshes says that the attack does not affect Finland’s security directly, but it may have an indirect effect on the situation on the eastern border.
He estimates that as a result of the attack, Russia can begin to monitor more carefully what kind of people from Syria and Iraq are trying to enter its territory.
– As a result, fewer people aspire to Russia and also through Russia to Finland, Moshes says.
Story updated at 14:47. Added Putin’s comments.
Sources: Reuters, AFP