Could the Turkish president find a magic wand with which he can make the Black Sea grain transports go again?
According to preliminary information Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will meet today, Monday, with the President of Russia Vladimir Putin in Sochi.
The main focus is on Black Sea grain transports. Last year, Turkey and Erdoğan did a lot of work for the agreement together with the UN.
– The grain agreement is important for President Erdoğan in terms of his own international prestige. Erdoğan wants to maintain the image of his role as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, says the analyst Kerim Has in a telephone interview.
Has specializes in relations between Turkey and Russia and follows developments from Moscow.
In July, Russia withdrew from the grain agreement, based on which Ukrainian grain could be exported abroad from three Black Sea ports. Just to be sure, Russia still bombed the export ports after it had rejected the agreement.
We are looking for a solution for grain export
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan doesn’t have a magic wand on the way, but there is a proposal on the tablewhich pleases Russia.
According to publicly available information, the idea is that if Russia allows the export of Ukrainian grain, it would have the opportunity to export its own grain to the world via Turkey.
Turkey’s ally Qatar has promised to pay at least part of the Russian grain that would be exported to Africa.
– I don’t think this would bother Western countries much, because this is about exporting food and nothing else, says Kerim Has.
Russia has demanded that the export of Russian grain and fertilizers be made easier. According to Russia’s interpretation, the UN has not kept the promise it made in the grain negotiations to facilitate exports.
Russia also wants the agricultural bank Rosselhozbank to be re-connected to the international SWIFT payment system.
Many countries are interested in restarting grain transport.
The single largest buyer of Ukrainian grain has been China, and Turkey also has its own cow in the ditch. It is the third largest importer of Ukrainian grain.
Turkey has suffered badly from the rapid rise in food prices, so Ukrainian grain would be needed.
Although the largest grain buyers are not in poor countries, the entry of Ukrainian grain into the market has also helped smaller buyers by keeping prices under control.
The meeting in Sochi is also an opportunity to observe the relationship between Erdoğan and Putin.
The men are said to get along well with each other, even though they sometimes have very conflicting interests.
“Erdoğan’s policies irritate Russia”
In the summer, we saw a number of events, based on which Russia interpreted that Turkey is moving closer to the West, says Kerim Has. After the May elections, Erdoğan, among other things, took the position of supporting Ukraine’s NATO membership.
When the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi went to Istanbul in July, Turkey and Ukraine signed the contract cooperation in the manufacture of strategically important products.
Turkey has exported weapons to Ukraine. In connection with the new agreement, there has been talk, among other things, about the manufacture of drones, in which Turkey has significant expertise.
– The cooperation agreement irritates Russia and Turkey’s support for NATO membership is symbolically significant, says Kerim Has.
According to Kerim Has, during Zelensky’s visit, Erdoğan also commented on the situation of Crimea’s Turkic Tatars in a way that can be interpreted as support for the fight against Russia. Turkey has already stated that the annexation of Crimea to Russia is illegal.
Trade flourishes under the shadow of sanctions
Russia and Turkey need each other economically, and trade between the two countries is growing rapidly. Turkey has not joined the embargo against Russia, but has tried to strike a balance between the West and Russia.
According to Kerim Hasi, the situation between Putin and Erdoğan has changed because the war in Ukraine is eating away at Russia’s power.
– There is still a certain imbalance here in Putin’s favor. But the situation has developed in such a way that Turkey’s position is stronger than before, because Russia is even more dependent on Turkey.
Russia circumvents sanctions imposed by Western countries by importing Western goods through Turkey.
Turkey, on the other hand, needs cheap grain and gas from Russia. Russia is also building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant and Russians are the biggest group of foreign tourists in Turkey. About 7 million Russian tourists are expected in the country this year.
Putin has previously shown how the arrival of tourists can be suppressed in an instant, for example by banning charter flights to Turkey, as was done in 2015. Russia stopped the flights after Turkey shot down a Russian military plane on the border between Syria and Turkey.
Russia has other ways to put pressure on Turkey, for example by causing problems in gas supplies. Russia could also bomb the last rebel areas in Syria, which could lead to another refugee crisis.
– Russia does have ways to put pressure on Erdoğan, but it cannot work right now. Turkey is too important a life hole in the midst of sanctions, says Kerim Has from Moscow.