Privatize public broadcasting, nationalize French highways. The National Rally’s program has been giving investors the shivers for two weeks. On the stock market, TF1, M6 and NRJ Group have suffered, as have the concessionaires Vinci and Eiffage. However, “these two projects are not governed by the same logic,” says political scientist Maroun Eddé. To be a State shareholder or not to be, that is the question?
The author of The Destruction of the State (Bouquins, 2023) summarizes: “On the economic level, the equation is often quite simple: either the State withdraws from an activity because it does not have much to do there or because it does not is not a good manager Or, conversely, pooling by public authorities can prove beneficial, like rail, motorway or nuclear infrastructures. a social choice. In this case, the essayist sees above all a populist aim in the ambitions of Marine Le Pen’s party. And even a revanchist measure, under the guise of budgetary savings: “The RN identifies public broadcasting as marked on the left and believes that the State does not have to finance it”.
In any case, from an economic point of view, these two measures do not hold water. Let’s start with the hypothesis of a renationalization of the axes operated by Vinci, Eiffage and Sanef since the privatizations of 2006, under the Villepin government. So many concession contracts with expiry dates between 2031 and 2036, depending on the case. Breaking them would cost several tens of billions of euros. In 2020, the report of the Senate Commission of Inquiry specified: “Provisioned by the concession contracts for reasons of general interest, the repurchase would have a cost estimated by the Ministry of the Economy and Finance between 45 and 50 billion euros”. This is enough to calm the ardor of a State which is already crumbling under public debt. In an interview with Parisianlast week, the general director of Sanef Arnaud Quémard hit the nail on the head: “Nationalizing would be expensive and would not solve anything […] The concession system is the best way to maintain and finance highways. It is thanks to this model that we have the best network in Europe, without a penny of public money.”
Mismanagement
Favorable, for his part, of a renationalization of the highways, Maroun Eddé nevertheless considers it absurd not to wait until 2031 and the end of the first contracts. “The RN only talks about nationalizing with the aim of reducing toll prices, which would be bad management. If it is true that toll prices have increased faster than inflation, it would be better to stop this increase and use the existing windfall to place it in a fund, so that its benefits are used to modernize the transport sector and finance the ecological transition,” he says.
The RN’s projects in the media sphere are no more convincing for those who know how to read the figures. On LinkedIn, HEC professor Pascal Quiry took a detailed look at the financial data for 2023. The France Télévisions group benefited last year from 2.4 billion euros in public subsidies – money that compensated for the removal of the license fee. in 2022. The rest of its revenue consists of some 432 million euros in advertising revenue. Ultimately, a slightly profitable result of 14 million euros. Therefore, if France Télévisions seeks 2.4 billion euros in additional advertising revenue, this will give it “a share of the television advertising market of 80% with only 29% of the audience.”, notes the professor of finance. Absurd. And Pascal Quiry continues: “Even if this feat were achieved, which would amount to depriving TF1 and M6 Group of 90% of their advertising revenue, France TV would still only break even.” All in an advertising market in annual decline of 1.4%, far from the double-digit growth rates of the 1980s, when TF1 was privatized. Under these conditions, it is difficult to imagine a transaction worth 3 billion euros, the price put forward by RN deputy Sébastien Chenu.
A zero price for France Télévisions
The Oddo BHF analysis office is hardly more optimistic about the feasibility of the project. “Given its local positioning, France 3 seems unsellable to us and could be necessarily attached to France 2, but the price would then be very low,” says the sector specialist, Jérôme Bodin, in a note on the subject. The intensification of competition resulting from the privatization of France Télévisions would also reduce negotiations. “We would not be surprised if bidders offered a zero price for some, as is sometimes the case for companies that are difficult to restructure,” he adds. Jérôme Bodin is developing two scenarios: that of partial privatization, via the sale, for example, of France 2 or France 5, “more feasible than total privatization”. Or a status quo but a reduction in costs at France Télévisions and Radio France. “At first glance, a mix of these two scenarios seems to us the most credible prospect in the event of a victory for the RN,” concludes the analyst.
Who would be likely to volunteer? TF1 and M6 could be candidates for takeover, except that “their capacity would be limited by the anti-concentration provisions since they already have five channels and cannot own more than seven”, remarks Philippe Bailly, president of the firm NPA Council. Impossible for them to take over the whole of France Télévisions. The media specialist also mentions these “actors who have shown a taste for audiovisual in recent months like Rodolphe Saadé [NDLR : futur propriétaire de BFMTV]Xavier Niel or Daniel Kretinsky [NDLR : anciens candidats au rachat de M6]. Or even foreign groups like that of the Berlusconi family, the leading private player in Spain and Italy, who became the largest shareholder of Pro Sieben in Germany, and which could fuel the project of a European entity.
Beyond France Télévisions’ accounts, an entire sector finds itself threatened, points out Philippe Bailly. “Public broadcasting also has the mission of contributing to the influence of culture, with at least one dedicated program per day in the first part of the evening and a minimum of 390 broadcasts of live shows per year, he explains. It can there may be side effects on the sector – 150,000 jobs – since the group finances visual production to the tune of at least 440 million euros per year, and cinema for a minimum of 80 million euros In the event of privatization. , there is little chance that the buyer will continue these investments at the same level.”
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