Facts: The subsidies in Iran
Ever since the war against Iraq in the 1980s, import-dependent Iran has helped importers increase their purchasing power abroad, despite the fluctuating value of the Iranian rial, with the help of extensive subsidies.
But it has become expensive for the Treasury and the question of how the state can reduce subsidies without putting the population in even greater poverty has been a problem for several different governments for many years.
As Iran has been subject to sanctions, while cereals and other important goods have become more expensive globally, the issue has become more acute.
On May 9, the government launched a plan to reduce subsidies for a variety of staples, including flour and dairy products, whose prices soared in just a few days.
The world sanctions against Iran have since they were introduced in 2018 thrown the country into an economic darkness. The currency is worth a spit fire from what it once was, and although necessary foods such as cooking oil and dairy products could be imported with the help of subsidies, many Iranians have struggled to make everyday life go together.
So when the government on May 9 announced that the subsidies that helped importers keep prices down would reduce protests broke out in several places.
The demonstrations have spread to dozens of cities, and are now more about protests against President Ebrahim Raisi, the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the Iranian dictatorship in general, than about the subsidies that triggered them.
Spontaneous but unplanned
What enables regime-critical rallies to meet in the tightly controlled dictatorship is the spontaneous nature of the protests. That is why the waves of protests often start outside the big cities – it is easier to mobilize in the small and medium-sized cities in which the protests are now taking place.
Although the internet is reported to have been shut down in several places, pictures and videos from the protests are being spread on social media, inspiring Iranians with similar problems elsewhere to take to the streets as well.
– But the fact that it is spontaneous also means that the possibility and ability to achieve a long-term effect is less. There is no movement, no opportunity to exert continuous political pressure. So after a while, people fall silent again, says Rouzbeh Parsi, Iranian expert and program manager at the Middle East and North Africa program at the Foreign Policy Institute (UI).
However, that silence is seldom long-lasting.
Shoots sharply
In 2019, higher fuel prices became the spark that led to the largest demonstrations in a long time in Iran, which quickly turned into protests against the political regime in general. At least 323 people are said to have been killed, thousands more were imprisoned, according to the human rights organization Amnesty International.
And last summer, water shortages triggered demonstrations in several Iranian cities, leading to clashes between security forces and protesters. According to human rights groups such as Human Rights Watch (HRW), several people were killed and dozens were detained.
Demonstrations against water shortages in Isfahan in November 2021.
Security forces are said to have fired sharply at protesters this year as well, but no official figures on the number of injured have been released.
An MP said in an audio recording that a person was killed in protests in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, and there are reports of more deaths, but the information is difficult to confirm.
Incompetent board
The regime sees all such statements as a security threat, and strikes them down as such, according to Parsi. But as long as the problems remain, the protests will continue in Iran, where there is a long tradition of demonstrations. The crowds seem to have managed to put pressure on the government to deal with the harsh living conditions.
– Whether those efforts succeed, however, is another question. Corruption and incompetence run straight through the political elite, otherwise one would not have had this situation to begin with.