The assassination attempt once boosted the support of Ford and Reagan. The impact of Trump’s assassination attempt on the situation in the United States is so far difficult to assess, says Mikko Saikku.
former president of the United States Donald Trump was shot at at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania in the evening, i.e. around one in the morning Finnish time. Trump was slightly injured in the incident.
– At the moment, there is certainly genuine shock over what happened, that once again a political assassination attempt has been attempted in the United States. Emotions in the United States will certainly heat up when this initial shock subsides, says the professor of American studies Mikko Saikku.
The situation is quite unclear, as not much is known about the suspected shooter yet. We do not yet know if the suspect left behind, for example, some kind of manifesto in which he would reveal his motives.
The messages of the election campaigns and the reactions of the parties depend a lot on what we learn about the shooter, Saikku says. Trump himself is largely responsible for whether he uses what happened as a tool to increase confrontation in the United States or whether he chooses another path.
– We don’t know if the shooter acted alone or what his motives were, Saikku states.
According to CNN police sources and witnesses, the suspected shooter was on the roof of a nearby building. One person was killed and two were seriously wounded in the shooting. The suspected shooter was killed by an undercover police officer. The US Federal Police FBI suspects the 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks About Donald Trump’s assassination attempt.
According to public information, the suspected shooter was a registered Republican voter. However, this does not automatically mean that he was actively involved in Republican activities.
Professor: Trump showed composure
The professor thinks it is likely that the assassination attempt will increase Trump’s popularity.
– In the history of the United States, it has been seen several times that if someone is the target of such an assassination attempt, his popularity rises. For example Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan there was a clear spike in support after the assassination attempts.
Trump showed moderation in his actions, which can bring new people behind him. What happened will probably at least strengthen Trump’s support among the Republicans’ most fanatical supporters, Saikku says.
– If the Commander-in-Chief has to show composure in all situations, as in the US, then surely no one can deny that Trump would have survived this situation quite restrainedly and showing composure, Saikku estimates.
– One could imagine that Trump’s behavior and surviving this assassination attempt will raise his popularity among at least some Republicans to downright messianic proportions.
Saikku believes that Trump will also use what happened in his campaign. He showed that he is not physically a coward, and that is hard currency in American politics, Saikku says.
It is still difficult to assess the impact on international politics
The incident causes turmoil in American politics, but Saikku considers it rather unlikely that the waves would extend to international politics. A lot depends on finding out the background of the shooter. The investigation can take a long time.
– If it turns out that there is a bigger conspiracy or foreign actors behind this, then it would naturally also affect international politics. But at the moment, nothing points to that.
There have already been several conspiracy theories about what happened. According to Saiku, conspiracy theories have been a part of American politics and culture for a long time.