The agreement with Turkey is good propaganda for President Erdogan – but seems to contain few Swedish concessions.
If Turkey has achieved something big, it is a promise from the United States, believes Jan Hallenberg, research leader at the Foreign Policy Institute.
– I think the Turks and President Erdogan see themselves as winners, says Hallenberg.
Turkey backs. After agreeing on an agreement in Madrid, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now opening the door for Sweden and Finland in the NATO defense alliance.
Why now? Jan Hallenberg, research leader at the Foreign Policy Institute, believes that Erdogan has milked out the maximum of the situation.
– There is a point when Erdogan no longer benefits from this and only becomes the black sheep in NATO. I think he is making the calculation that this is as far as it can go, that it is now just as good to put this down and tell the home crowd that tremendous progress has been made – which is very exaggerated based on what we can judge so far, says Hallenberg.
According to Turkey, the agreement includes promises that Sweden will not support Kurdish organizations and take concrete measures to extradite terrorist criminals. A list of points has been published.
Shortly after the agreement was presented, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson declared that it is mainly arms exports that will be screwed up a bit.
Is it likely that Sweden has made any real concessions to Turkey?
– I do not think so. The Prime Minister spoke and said that we should listen more to Turkey when it comes to arms deliveries and really nothing else, says Jan Hallenberg.
For Erdogan, the process has above all been an opportunity to show itself on the tightrope ahead of the presidential election in 2023, Hallenberg believes.
– I think he played this card as far as he thinks he earned it. I do not rule out that there is something here that we did not know anything about at all – namely that the Americans have promised him something. What is closest at hand then is the F-16 plane.
How likely is the United States to play a role here?
– I think that is very likely.
Turkey has previously wanted to buy the F-35 fighter jet from the United States – but was refused after buying a Russian weapons system. However, the United States has opened up to sell an updated version of the older model F-16 to Turkey.
Hallenberg emphasizes that there have been recurring diplomatic contacts between the countries. Not least a phone call between Erdogan and US President Joe Biden just before the talks in Madrid.
Finally, Turkey could set the hook for Sweden when membership of NATO is to be ratified – is this really clear now?
– I have a very hard time believing that they would veto again. I have a very hard time seeing that, says Hallenberg.