He has never been popular with the Japanese population. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on Wednesday, August 14, his intention to withdraw from the race for the leadership of his party in September, which means he will step down as head of government.
“In this election for the (party) presidency, it is necessary to show the people that the LDP (the ruling Liberal Democratic Party) is changing. The most obvious first step to show (this) is for me to step down. I will not run in the next election for the presidency” of the party, Kishida said at a news conference. “I made this heavy decision with the firm belief that politics is possible only with the trust of the people and that we will move forward with political reform,” he added.
The LDP, which has been in power in Japan almost without interruption since 1945, must organize an internal election in September to designate its leader, and therefore the person who will assume the functions of Prime Minister.
A falling popularity rating
Fumio Kishida, 67, has been in office since October 2021 and has seen his approval ratings plummet, severely weakened by inflation and political and financial scandals affecting the LDP. His government’s approval ratings have stagnated around 25% this year, according to a poll by public broadcaster NHK.
Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University, told AFP that Kishida made the decision because he had no certainty of winning the election. “He failed to close ranks” within his party, Nakano said, adding that “for an LDP leader, staying in power for three years is longer than average.” Kishida came in eighth in the ranking of the 35 longest serving prime ministers since World War II.
The world’s fourth-largest economy is struggling to get back on track after the Covid period, with GDP expected to decline by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2024, for example. Last November, Fumio Kishida announced a 17 trillion yen (over €100 billion) stimulus plan as he tried to reduce inflation pressure. Having seen prices stagnate for years, the Japanese have been having a hard time with their rise since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, pushing up energy costs.
Undecided succession
Meanwhile, his conservative right-wing party has been embroiled in a political funding scandal for months, with alleged payments to party members accused of exceeding ticket sales quotas for fundraisers at the centre of the affair.
From the moment he came to power, Fumio Kishida appeared as a compromise choice for the LDP. This elected representative from Hiroshima (west) in the Lower House since 1993 – like his father and grandfather before him – cultivates a spirit of consensus in the absence of convincing charisma. As he only led a small moderate parliamentary faction of the LDP, he constantly had to give assurances to other more powerful currents of his party, in particular its ultranationalist wing controlled by his former mentor and ex-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, until his assassination in 2022. This decision by Fumio Kishida to leave the head of the party and therefore the government, launches the race for his succession, which promises to be undecided.
Prior to the announcement, several figures had been mentioned as possible successors to Kishida, including Digital Affairs Minister Taro Kono and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi. The daily Yomiuri Shimbun reported that some LDP members had high hopes for Shigeru Ishiba, the party’s former number two, and Shinjiro Koizumi, a former environment minister and son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. “In this election for the presidency, I hope that those who think they have the qualifications will actively raise their hands and engage in a serious debate,” Fumio Kishida said.