Wagner Director Yevgeny Prigozhin broke almost two days of radio silence on Monday night. He released an 11-minute audio message in which he said Wagner was forced into rebellion because its existence was threatened. Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and the president Vladimir Putin had ordered that Wagner’s soldiers must sign a service contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense by the end of June.
According to Prigozhin, the purpose of the march to Moscow was not to overthrow the Russian regime. However, the purpose was to hold accountable those who are responsible for the mistakes of the “Russian special operation”. Prigozhin also continued to criticize the Russian military leadership in his voice message.
The Russian media, on the other hand, have reported today that Prigozhin’s treason charge has not been dropped, contrary to what was announced on Saturday evening.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was under Prigozhin’s teeth, was published this morning in a video of the Russian Ministry of Defense, in which he allegedly visits the Ukrainian front. This would indicate that his position is at least not at stake.
A video of President Vladimir Putin’s speech to the “Future Engineers” youth forum was also released today. He did not comment on Prigozhin’s rebellion in any way.
According to experts, the coming days and weeks will decide which direction the situation in Russia will go.
Has Prigožin’s game been played?
Military professor at the National Defense University Aki-Mauri Huhtinen believes that Prigožin’s game is now played. According to him, Prigozhin had a distorted image of reality.
– He had the illusion that he is such a military genius, says Huhtinen.
According to Huhtinen, the situation in Russia is far from over. The coming days and weeks will show in which direction the situation in Russia will develop.
– The voltage has not decreased. That problem has not been solved, says Huhtinen.
Russia expert of the Foreign Policy Institute Jussi Lassilan think it is still too early to declare that Prigozh has been “overthrown”.
– The process is still in progress. The fact that he leaves accompanied by shouts of hurrah, and he is offered a place to hide, shows that an emergency solution has had to be made, says Lassila.
According to Lassila, the fact that Prigožin was charged with treason, which was later withdrawn, shows that Prigožin clearly has some leverage at his disposal.
– Time will tell. Considering the circumstances, you could say that the first set went quite nicely for Prigožin.
According to Lassila, Prigozhin was one of many powerful figures in Russia, and he has now been pushed aside. The option that Prigozhin would have become Putin’s lap dog like many other oligarchs is gone.
– My educated guess is that this episode is being edited out of Russia’s reality as quickly as possible.
Wagner has taken care of Russia’s interests in Africa, for example, and it has been useful for the Russian administration to officially stay out of the business.
– Russia may lose its interests here, because Prigozhin and Wagner have managed these brutal businesses.
According to Huhtinen, it is difficult to estimate how much support Wagner has among ordinary people. However, Prigozhin has been symbolized by frustration, and his rapture inspired people, at least momentarily.
– The episode underlines to the Russians that things are not good. At the same time, he did an information campaign for Ukraine for free.
Prigozhin refuted one of Russia’s arguments for attacking Ukraine in his video message on Friday, saying that Ukraine never attacked “the residents of Donbass”, contrary to what Russian propaganda has been drumming up all these years.
Prigožin’s message has of course been improved by the fact that the war has not really gone well, says Huhtinen.
“Humiliation and shock for Putin”
Putin is unlikely to forgive what happened. Putin’s biggest fear is precisely an internal rebellion and riot, says Huhtinen.
– Putin has a long grudge, he will not forget this.
Currently, not much is known about the consequences of Prigozhin’s abduction. However, Huhtinen considers it possible that the countermeasures will be tough.
– It is not known whose heads will fall. It may be that some of them will be made warning examples so that no one would try something like this again, says Huhtinen.
Huhtinen considers it likely that Putin’s administration will enact ever stricter laws, and that power will be concentrated even more to Putin.
Lassila also believes that Prigožin will still be punished. It will happen when Prigozhin’s political influence is completely eradicated.
According to Lassila, at the moment, the situation arouses great uncertainty in the Kremlin, because it is not known how much silent or even active support Wagner has. It is, says Lassila.
Already a month ago, one of Russia’s most influential war bloggers, an ultranationalist Igor Girkin wrote in Telegram that Prigozh would attempt a coup. Now Girkin has said that Prigozh should be hanged.
According to Lassila, the possible elimination of Prigožin could only take place years from now.
– I don’t think he would be so stupid that he would have been ready to become the president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko a trap for Belarus, says Lassila.
Putin’s prestige has weakened
Putin’s prestige seems weakened at the moment, says Huhtinen. Putin has never been challenged so openly.
– In Russia, we are used to Putin controlling everything and being one step ahead of everyone. It was clear from Putin’s exit on Friday morning that he was furious with Prigozhin.
According to Huhtinen, why Putin allowed the situation to progress this far is a great mystery.
– Putin tries to be above everything and untouchable. This was the first time he had publicly become embroiled in the bickering of those at a lower level.
Jussi Lassila of the Foreign Policy Institute agrees that Putin’s position has clearly weakened. In his opinion, however, it is not under direct threat.
– Putin’s image has been based on the fact that there are no meaningful alternatives. However, his role as a guarantor of stability among the elite has weakened.
According to Lassila, the situation was able to progress a long way because the Russian system is weak to work in a coordinated manner. According to him, Prigozhin knew how to skillfully use uncertainty for good.
– No one does anything because everyone is unaware of the events. Inaction is not punished as badly as wrong choices, says Lassila.
Šoigu seems to keep his place
According to Lassila, Putin is unlikely to fire Defense Minister Šoigu, because that would mean that Prigozhin got his goals through. This would not suit Putin’s prestige, which has been humiliated in an unprecedented way. The situation is extremely embarrassing for Putin.
– Their positions will very likely remain the same, and everything will continue as bad as before.
– Shoigu and the chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov are complete statists in this respect, they have little authority if the situation is compared to Putin. They are loyal, unearned and corrupt, so Prigožin’s claims are true in this respect, says Lassila.
– There are signs that the rebellion has left such a mark that there is no going back – although I think the Kremlin is trying in every way to create that impression, says Lassila.