BARREL PRICE. That’s it, the price of a barrel of oil has fallen below 100 dollars. This Tuesday, February 15, it was estimated at 98 dollars. Will this plunge bring down fuel prices in France? We tell you everything.
[Mis à jour le 15 mars 2022 à 16h33] $98. This is the price of a barrel of Brent since Tuesday, March 15. The fall has continued since last week when the barrel soared to approach 140 dollars. A trend that gives some hope in France, the big rollers can hope for slightly more reasonable prices at the pump. Still awaiting the implementation of the 15 cents per liter discount on April 1, consumers should pay attention to the presentation of the economic resilience plan by the Prime Minister John Castexthis Wednesday, March 16.
But then, how to explain this sudden and constant drop in the price of a barrel for a few days now? And will the price of refueling also go down? Recently, discussions between Vladimir Poutine and Volodymyr Zelensky resumed through videoconferences. The two warlords could even meet. The prospect of a ceasefire is not completely excluded and allows, for the time being, to calm the price of the barrel and therefore the repercussion on the price at the pump in France. This fall and then stagnation in the price of a barrel of oil can also be explained by other simple phenomena. I’Europe always being extremely dependent vis-à-vis Russian gas, it still cannot position itself strongly in favor of an embargo. Joe Biden, the President of the United States, did it. But Europe remains much more reluctant to this idea. This is why the price of a barrel of oil has calmed down slightly. Pay attention, however, to the oil price volatility, extremely dependent on the next European decisions and the progress of the war in Ukraine. The rise of the euro against the dollar in recent days also gives hope for a slightly more lasting drop in fuel prices in the days to come. A liter of diesel around 2 euros should apply this week in French service stations, far from the 2.25 euros on average across the country last week.
Faced with the unprecedented increase in the barrel of oil last week, close to 140 euros per barrel, member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) should release no less than 60 million barrels of oil of their reserves. One objective, to stabilize a market in panic. So, should we expect a further rise in fuel prices in France, when the prices charged have already reached record highs? As fuel prices are strongly indexed to the price of a barrel of oil, a further rise in pump prices is to be expected despite the new aid measure put in place by the government. French consumers could well be the first victims of a potential embargo. Difficult for Europe to turn around quickly, alternatives are possible, but they will take time before being put in place.
The war in Ukraine casts doubt on the supply and price of energy. Aside from gas, one question remains central and arouses curiosity, what is the price per barrel of oil in this mess? Rising almost constantly since December 2021, the price of a barrel is now in free fall, up to 101 dollarss Tuesday, March 15.
When you fill up with gas, the taxes represent 60% full. And these taxes, they, in spite of the war in Ukraine, fluctuate rather little. In particular the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE), which simply represents the fourth revenue of the State, behind VAT, income tax and corporate tax. the fuel price leaving the refinery, it corresponds to 1/3 full of gasoline. Notably influenced by the price of a barrel of oil on international markets. Gas station attendants will have no choice but to pass on this increase to the price per litre.
Keep in mind that there is a lag time between the increase in the purchase price of a barrel of oil and the real impact on prices at the pump. This time varies 8 to 10 days about. In an attempt to curb this phenomenon, several aids have been put in place and distributed by the Government. In particular the inflation bonus granted to 38 million low-income households, as well as the revaluation of the mileage scale for 2.5 million tax households. The threat of a embargo European on Russian gas could cause the price of a barrel of oil to explode at $300or even more.
According to INSEE, the Russia is the 3rd world producer of oil with 10 million barrels per day, of which 2 million transit to Europe. The Franceshe matters 9% of its crude oil since Russia. And the countries which could substitute the major role of Russia in the export of oil are not legion. Nigeria, Angola and Libya, for example, are not even meeting their own production targets. the Nigeria (9.6% of oil imports in France), theAlgeria (10.3%), and theSaudi Arabia (11.8%) remain crucial trading partners for France to whom the government could turn more to supply the country.
“We have large strategic oil stocks that cover almost three months of consumption and allow us to deal with supply disruptions. The French are not at risk of running out of fuel or gas for heating in the coming months” declared the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili on February 23. The European Union could even decide to release part of its strategic oil stocks to counter the rise in fuel prices in the face of this major market disruption. A decision taken only three times in history, for example after Hurricane Katrina in the United States.