BARREL PRICE. Since the end of last week, the price of a barrel of Brent oil has stabilized around 109 dollars. The price of fuel, too, is falling at the start of the week. How to explain it? Why are prices starting to drop? We tell you everything.
[Mis à jour le 14 mars 2022 à 07h58] After reaching peaks and close to its historic record last week, the price of a barrel of oil stagnated on Monday March 14, observed around $109 the Brent, as at the end of last week. Enough to consider a positive effect at the pump for the French, taken by the throat by the last soaring prices. This Monday, a drop of 35 cents is expected in service stations across the country, before the implementation of the discount of 15 cents per litre, announced by Jean Castex. This new financial assistance on fuel will take effect on April 1st.
This fall and then stagnation in the price of a barrel of oil can be explained by several phenomena. As Europe is still extremely dependent on Russian gas, it still cannot position itself strongly in favor of an embargo. Joe Biden, the President of the United States, did it. But Europe remains much more reluctant to this idea. This is why the price of a barrel of oil has calmed down slightly. Beware, however, of the volatility of oil prices, which are extremely dependent on upcoming European decisions and the progress of the war in Ukraine. The rise of the euro against the dollar in recent days also gives hope for a slightly more permanent drop in fuel prices in the days to come.
Faced with the unprecedented increase in the barrel of oil last week, close to 140 euros per barrel, member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) should release no less than 60 million barrels of oil of their reserves. One objective, to stabilize a market in panic. So, should we expect a further rise in fuel prices in France, when the prices charged have already reached record highs? As fuel prices are strongly indexed to the price of a barrel of oil, a further rise in pump prices is to be expected despite the new aid measure put in place by the government. French consumers could well be the first victims of a potential embargo. Difficult for Europe to turn around quickly, alternatives are possible, but they will take time before being put in place.
The war in Ukraine casts doubt on the supply and price of energy. Aside from gas, one question remains central and arouses curiosity, what is the price per barrel of oil in this mess? Rising almost constantly since December 2021, the price of a barrel has reached the price of $109 Monday, March 14, 2022.
When you fill up with gas, the taxes represent 60% full. And these taxes, they, in spite of the war in Ukraine, fluctuate rather little. In particular the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE), which simply represents the fourth revenue of the State, behind VAT, income tax and corporate tax. the fuel price leaving the refinery, it corresponds to 1/3 full of gasoline. Notably influenced by the price of a barrel of oil on international markets. Gas station attendants will have no choice but to pass on this increase to the price per litre.
Keep in mind that there is a lag time between the increase in the purchase price of a barrel of oil and the real impact on prices at the pump. This time varies 8 to 10 days about. In an attempt to curb this phenomenon, several aids have been put in place and distributed by the Government. In particular the inflation bonus granted to 38 million low-income households, as well as the revaluation of the mileage scale for 2.5 million tax households. The threat of a embargo European on Russian gas could cause the price of a barrel of oil to explode at $300or even more.
For a month, the price of fuel per liter has increased, on average by 52 cents in France to reach €2.25 per liter throughout the country.
According to INSEE, the Russia is the 3rd world producer of oil with 10 million barrels per day, of which 2 million transit to Europe. The Franceshe matters 9% of its crude oil since Russia. And the countries which could substitute the major role of Russia in the export of oil are not legion. Nigeria, Angola and Libya, for example, are not even meeting their own production targets. the Nigeria (9.6% of oil imports in France), theAlgeria (10.3%), and theSaudi Arabia (11.8%) remain crucial trading partners for France to whom the government could turn more to supply the country.
“We have significant strategic oil stocks which cover nearly three months of consumption and allow us to deal with supply disruptions. The French are not at risk of running out of fuel or gas for heating in the coming months” declared the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili on February 23. The European Union could even decide to release part of its strategic oil stocks to counter the rise in fuel prices in the face of this major market disruption. A decision taken only three times in history, for example after Hurricane Katrina in the United States.