BARREL PRICE. The surge in oil prices subsided at the beginning of the week. Should we see a clearer picture regarding fuel prices in France? We tell you everything.
[Mis à jour le 29 mars 2022 à 08h41] The price of a barrel of oil has everything to reassure observers at the start of the week. For a few days now, the course has been falling, of course. To the height of $112 this Tuesday, March 29. But it is more appropriate to dwell on the worrying rise observed last week. Remember that the effects of a rise in the price of a barrel of oil are really felt at the pump only eight days later. This is why these harmful effects on the liter of diesel in France should be observed from this weekend, and at the beginning of next week. I’International Energy Agency (IEA) even fears a “global oil supply shock”, as it announced last week. For the time being, the few discussions started two weeks ago between Russia and Ukraine are not succeeding, and the threat of a barrel at more than $150 still hovering in the market. For the time being, a liter of gasoline is hovering around 2 euros in French service stations, but a further increase in the days to come cannot be ruled out.
As fuel prices in France are strongly indexed to the price of a barrel of oil, it is a safe bet that the increase over the past fortnight will affect the price per liter in French stations in the weeks to come. Remember that approximately 8 to 10 days elapse between the rise in the price of a barrel and the real effect at the pump. De facto, we can hope for a significant increase in fuel prices in France at the very end of March. To avoid any hiccups in supply, the IEA plans to release more than 60 million. The organization even suggests that households reduce their consumption by favoring public transport, reducing their speed on the motorway by 10 km/h or even resorting massively to teleworking. Proof if it were needed of the seriousness of the situation, after a month of war in Ukraine.
Since the start of the week, we have seen a small respite with relative stagnation in prices. They dropped back below 100 dollars at the start of the week before rising again significantly. Prime Minister Jean Castex announced two aids on fuel, Wednesday March 16, during the press conference presenting the resilience plan. First, a discount of 15 cents on fuel for all French people from April 1 and for 4 months. Then, more help from 35 cents per liter of fuel fishing for fishermen hard hit by the price explosion. Aid valid from April 17 to July 31 to allow them to go back to sea in decent conditions.
- March 7, 2022: $139 the barrel
- March 8, 2022: $128 the barrel
- March 10, 2022: $110 the barrel
- March 15, 2022: $98 the barrel
- March 16, 2022: $100 the barrel
- March 17, 2022: $106 the barrel
- March 18, 2022: $109 the barrel
- March 21, 2022: $111 the barrel
- March 22, 2022: $118 the barrel
- March 23, 2022: $116 the barrel
- March 24, 2022: $120 the barrel
- March 25, 2022: $120 the barrel
- March 28, 2022: $113 the barrel
- March 29, 2022: $112 the barrel
The war in Ukraine casts doubt on the supply and price of energy. Aside from gas, one question remains central and arouses curiosity, what is the price per barrel of oil in this mess? Rising almost constantly since December 2021, the price of a barrel is now stable around 100 dollars, measured exactly at 112 dollars this Tuesday, March 29.
When you fill up with gas, the taxes represent 60% full. And these taxes, they, in spite of the war in Ukraine, fluctuate rather little. In particular the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE), which simply represents the fourth revenue of the State, behind VAT, income tax and corporate tax. the fuel price leaving the refinery, it corresponds to 1/3 full of gasoline. Notably influenced by the price of a barrel of oil on international markets. Gas station attendants will have no choice but to pass on this increase to the price per litre.
Keep in mind that there is a lag time between the increase in the purchase price of a barrel of oil and the real impact on prices at the pump. This time varies 8 to 10 days about. In an attempt to curb this phenomenon, several aids have been put in place and distributed by the Government. In particular the inflation bonus granted to 38 million low-income households, as well as the revaluation of the mileage scale for 2.5 million tax households. The threat of a embargo European on Russian gas could cause the price of a barrel of oil to explode at $300or even more.
According to INSEE, the Russia is the 3rd world producer of oil with 10 million barrels per day, of which 2 million transit to Europe. The Franceshe matters 9% of its crude oil since Russia. And the countries which could substitute the major role of Russia in the export of oil are not legion. Nigeria, Angola and Libya, for example, are not even meeting their own production targets. the Nigeria (9.6% of oil imports in France), theAlgeria (10.3%), and theSaudi Arabia (11.8%) remain crucial trading partners for France to whom the government could turn more to supply the country.
“We have significant strategic oil stocks which cover almost three months of consumption and allow us to deal with supply disruptions. The French are not at risk of running out of fuel or gas for heating in the coming months” declared the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili on February 23. The European Union could even decide to release part of its strategic oil stocks to counter the rise in fuel prices in the face of this major market disruption. A decision taken only three times in history, for example after Hurricane Katrina in the United States.