BARREL PRICE. The price of black gold is stabilizing around 100 dollars per barrel of Brent this week and is even tending to fall. How can this drop be explained? What impact on the price at the pump in France? Response elements.
[Mis à jour le 13 avril 2022 à 08h49] Apart from a very slight rebound on Wednesday morning, the price of a barrel of oil has been falling for a week. A rather unexpected phenomenon in March when its price soared and threatened to reach the historic record of 140 dollars. Finally, it is not so and the repercussions on the price of fuel in France are felt. We are still very far from the price per liter displayed at 2.25 euros last month. But then, how to explain this fairly rapid fall in the price of a barrel of oil? The various confinements in China can first of all explain this phenomenon. China being the world’s largest importer of crude oil, demand is felt and orders fall, prices with. Second, the European embargo on Russian gas now seems a distant memory. The hypothesis hovered two weeks ago with discussions between the leaders of the European Union, for the moment, the project is at a standstill, which allows the price of black gold not to fly away like the middle of March.
Concerning the impact on the price of fuel in French service stations, the delay of 8 to 10 days between the surge in the barrel of Brent in mid-March and a potential repercussion at the pump has therefore still not taken place. This constant decline in the price of black gold can also be explained by Joe Biden’s latest statement. The President of the United States could proceed with the withdrawal of 180 million barrels of oil from its reserve, unheard of for 50 years. On Monday April 4, 2022, the government even announced a drop in 22 cents on average at the pump, in particular due to the implementation last week of the fuel discount of 18 cents. A measure that has quite significantly curbed prices, freezing the price of a liter of petrol around €1.90 the liter of fuel?
Be careful all the same, the concern does not fall to international authorities. A “global oil supply shock” is even feared by the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the repercussions could be dramatic on prices at the pump in France, despite this slight lull observed for a short week. For the time being, the few discussions started two weeks ago between Russia and Ukraine are not succeeding, and the threat of a barrel at more than $150 still hovering in the market. To avoid any hiccups in supply, another major concern of the institutions, the IEA plans to release more than 60 million. The organization even suggests that households reduce their consumption by favoring public transport, reducing their speed on the motorway by 10 km/h or even resorting massively to teleworking. Proof if it were needed of the seriousness of the situation, after a month of war in Ukraine.
Since the start of the week, we have seen a small respite with relative stagnation in prices. They dropped back below 100 dollars at the start of the week before rising again significantly. Prime Minister Jean Castex announced two aids on fuel, Wednesday March 16, during the press conference presenting the resilience plan. First, a discount of 15 cents on fuel for all French people from April 1 and for 4 months. Then, more help from 35 cents per liter of fuel fishing for fishermen hard hit by the price explosion. Aid valid from April 17 to July 31 to allow them to go back to sea in decent conditions.
- March 7, 2022: $139 the barrel
- March 8, 2022: $128 the barrel
- March 10, 2022: $110 the barrel
- March 15, 2022: $98 the barrel
- March 16, 2022: $100 the barrel
- March 17, 2022: $106 the barrel
- March 18, 2022: $109 the barrel
- March 21, 2022: $111 the barrel
- March 22, 2022: $118 the barrel
- March 23, 2022: $116 the barrel
- March 24, 2022: $120 the barrel
- March 25, 2022: $120 the barrel
- March 28, 2022: $113 the barrel
- March 29, 2022: $112 the barrel
- March 30, 2022: $111 the barrel
- March 31, 2022: $109 the barrel
- April 1, 2022: $103 the barrel
- April 4, 2022: $105 the barrel
- April 5, 2022: $109 the barrel
- April 6, 2022: $107 the barrel
- April 7, 2022: $102 the barrel
- April 8, 2022: $101 the barrel
- April 11, 2022: $100 the barrel
- April 12, 2022: $100 the barrel
- April 13, 2022: $104 the barrel
The war in Ukraine casts doubt on the supply and price of energy. Aside from gas, one question remains central and arouses curiosity, what is the price per barrel of oil in this mess? Rising almost constantly since December 2021, the price of a barrel is now stable around 100 dollars, measured exactly at 104 dollars this Wednesday, April 13.
When you fill up with gas, the taxes represent 60% full. And these taxes, they, in spite of the war in Ukraine, fluctuate rather little. In particular the domestic consumption tax on energy products (TICPE), which simply represents the fourth revenue of the State, behind VAT, income tax and corporate tax. the fuel price leaving the refinery, it corresponds to 1/3 full of gasoline. Notably influenced by the price of a barrel of oil on international markets. Gas station attendants will have no choice but to pass on this increase to the price per litre.
Keep in mind that there is a lag time between the increase in the purchase price of a barrel of oil and the real impact on prices at the pump. This time varies 8 to 10 days approximately. In an attempt to curb this phenomenon, several aids have been put in place and distributed by the Government. In particular the inflation bonus granted to 38 million low-income households, as well as the revaluation of the mileage scale for 2.5 million tax households. The threat of a embargo European on Russian gas could cause the price of a barrel of oil to explode at $300or even more.
According to INSEE, the Russia is the 3rd world producer of oil with 10 million barrels per day, of which 2 million transit to Europe. The Franceshe matters 9% of its crude oil since Russia. And the countries which could substitute the major role of Russia in the export of oil are not legion. Nigeria, Angola and Libya, for example, are not even meeting their own production targets. the Nigeria (9.6% of oil imports in France), theAlgeria (10.3%), and theSaudi Arabia (11.8%) remain crucial trading partners for France to whom the government could turn more to supply the country.
“We have significant strategic oil stocks which cover almost three months of consumption and allow us to deal with supply disruptions. The French are not at risk of running out of fuel or gas for heating in the coming months” declared the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili on February 23. The European Union could even decide to release part of its strategic oil stocks to counter the rise in fuel prices in the face of this major market disruption. A decision taken only three times in history, for example after Hurricane Katrina in the United States.