PRESIDENTIAL POLLS. The latest poll on the second round of the 2022 presidential election places Emmanuel Macron at the top of voting intentions, ahead of Marine Le Pen. Our compilation of studies shows that the dynamic is on the side of the outgoing president.
All the 2nd round polls for the 2022 presidential election give Emmanuel Macron ahead of Marine Le Pen. Since the first round ballot, the institutes have noted a gap between the two candidates which has tended to widen slightly. The balance of power established in the polls revolves around 55%-45% to the advantage of the outgoing president. Surprisingly, it is more or less the same result as those of the polls carried out 10 or 12 months ago. But remember, however, that the polls cannot be interpreted as a forecast of an election result, it is a snapshot of public opinion at a specific moment. Given the very strong abstentionist potential, the indecision of those who still hesitate to go to the polling stations, the lines can move: the result of the second round of the presidential election is not written.
This “latest poll” featured here may come from different polling institutes, and each has a different methodology. Here are the ones that appear alternately on this page, with links to find out more about each survey.
What do the polls say about this revenge between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, five years after an identical second round in 2017? Even before the first round of this 2022 presidential election was held, polls had been published in the event of a second round confrontation in the presidential election between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron.
All the polls carried out before the first round gave Emmanuel Macron the winner. These pre-first round polls have been supplemented by new studies carried out since Sunday, April 10.
2nd round debate poll
The Elabe Institute carried out a survey for BFM TV, L’Express and SFR at the end of the debate between the two rounds, on a representative panel of 650 people who watched the discussions. 59% of respondents felt that Emmanuel Macron had been “more convincing” (39% for Marine Le Pen). Another lesson from this poll: the viewers questioned were 53% to think that Emmanuel Macron is the one who “has the most qualities to be President of the Republic” (28% for Marine Le Pen); the outgoing president is considered to be more “capable of bringing the French people together” (36% against 31%), more dynamic (49% against 31%); he is also perceived as having the “best project” (44% against 31%), but also as the “most arrogant” (50% against 16%).
Poll on the certainty of the Macron or Le Pen vote
This is important data to identify the probability that the dynamics of the polls will reverse or accelerate: have voting intentions already crystallized and to what extent? According toa very robust Ipsos Sopra Steria / Cevipof study for Le Monde, 69% of French people said they were sure they would vote on April 18, 2022 (57% among 18-24 year olds, 56% among 25-34 year olds, but 78% among 60-69 year olds and 82% among 70 years and older). Another data: 93% of voters thinking of voting Emmanuel Macron say they are certain of their second-round choice, 89% of voters thinking of voting Marine Le Pen also. But 43% of people thinking of abstaining or voting blank or null say they can change their minds.
The Ifop polling institute gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the 2nd round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
The polling institute Elabe gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the 2nd round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
The Opinion Way polling institute gives Emmanuel Macron at the top of the voting intentions for the second round of the presidential election. Here are the developments of the survey over the last few days.
What do the polls say about vote carryovers?
Polls on the voters of Mélenchon
Polls specify the voting intentions of voters who did not vote for the two candidates in the first round, a means of obtaining a vision of possible vote transfers for the second round.
According to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for Le Monde published on April 20, 36% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters intended to vote for Emmanuel Macron, 19% for Marine Le Pen and 45% intended to abstain.
According to the BVA survey for Orange er RTL published on April 15, 2022, “a majority of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters refuse to make a choice and think either to abstain (30%), or to vote white (22%)” . “But when they go to vote, they are significantly more likely to consider voting for Emmanuel Macron (30%) than for Marine Le Pen (18%)”, adds the institute.
According to the survey Ifop carried out for TFI-LCI on April 10 gave the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, very divided: 33% intended on this date to vote for Emmanuel Macron against 23% for Marine Le Pen while 44% lean for a blank vote, null or abstention.
Pécresse voter polls
Valérie Pécresse’s electorate also appears divided: according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria study cited above, 50% of those who voted for candidate LR intend to vote for Emmanuel Macron, 20% for Marine Le Pen and 30% intend to refrain.