Presidential: Macron or Le Pen? France votes for a historic choice

The French began voting on Sunday to elect their next president and choose, as in 2017, between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The former is favorite for a second term. But never has the far right seemed so close to the gates of power.

Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. in mainland France. They will close at 7:00 p.m., and at 8:00 p.m. in major cities.

With the three school zones in the country on school holidays, abstention could be the great arbiter of this second round.

The turnout at noon will give a first indication of the mobilization of the 48.7 million voters called to the polls.

Some overseas territories and French people living abroad voted on Saturday. In Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, participation was 57%, against 54.96% in the first round.

In New Caledonia, where abstention had reached a record rate in the first round (66.65%), the second round is announced under the same auspices.

At 12 noon, the participation rate communicated by the High Commission of the Republic was 18.17% against 17.59% on April 10 at the same time.

In Noumea, Steeve Lauret, municipal employee, said he was “little surprised” by this weak mobilization, recalling that the separatists had called for abstention.

But he “considers that it is everyone’s duty to take an interest in the political life of the country, otherwise after that you should not complain”.

The French are faced with a historic choice: to renew the outgoing president, which has never been done, apart from cohabitation, since the adoption of direct universal suffrage in 1962 and the election of General de Gaulle three years later.

Or elect a woman, which would be a first, and thus propel the far right to the Elysée for an explosion that would resonate well beyond French borders, comparable to Britain’s Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in the United States? United in 2016.

A re-election of Emmanuel Macron, 44, would represent continuity, even if the candidate president has promised to renew himself in depth, ensuring that he wants to place ecology at the heart of his second – and last – term.

He must speak to his supporters on Sunday evening, after the ballot, on the Champs de Mars, at the foot of the Eiffel Tower.

The arrival of Marine Le Pen, 53, at the helm of a nuclear power, endowed with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and driving force of the European Union would be an earthquake, of a magnitude all the higher in that it would take place in the heavy context of a war at the gates of Europe.

The latest polls published Friday evening, before the entry into force of the electoral reserve period, give Emmanuel Macron the favorite, beyond the margin of error.

But very far from his 2017 score where, after a meteoric rise, he beat his rival by 66.1% of the vote against 33.9%, to become, at 39, the youngest president of the V Republic.

– Front against front –

The programs of the two candidates are opposite and offer a radically different vision of Europe, the economy, purchasing power, relations with Russia, pensions, immigration, the environment…

After a five-year period studded with crises, from “yellow vests” to the Covid, it is two Frances who oppose each other.

To counter his opponent, Emmanuel Macron, who came out on top in the first round (27.85%) with more than four points ahead, reactivated the “republican front”. Which, however, seems to have lost its vigor compared to 2017 and 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, was largely dominated in the second round by Jacques Chirac.

The candidate of the National Rally, for her third attempt, bet on another front, the “Everything but Macron” whose impact at the polls remains to be measured.

Between the two rounds, the two candidates courted the electorate of rebellious leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third on April 10 with 21.95%.

But many LFI supporters could be tempted to shun the ballot box.

The big unknown in the ballot therefore remains abstention, which is likely to be high, even higher than in the first round (26.31%). Just like the blank and null ballots which had reached a record in 2017, attesting to the refusal of millions of French people to choose between the two finalists.

The abstention record for a second round dates from 1969 with 31.1%.

Voters will again be called to the polls on June 12 and 19 for the legislative elections where the new president will seek to obtain the majority necessary to govern.

Another “third round” is preparing in the street where, against a background of galloping inflation, all those dissatisfied with the presidential election are likely to converge, on the still hot embers of the “yellow vests” crisis.

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