Miraculously, billions of dollars are raining down from the cloudless skies of the Gulf. On March 6, the Turkish Central Bank received an unexpected gift from Saudi Arabia, which poured 5 billion dollars into its very empty coffers. What stabilize the Turkish currency, in free fall for two years, and breathe new life into the campaign of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, struggling in the polls before the election of May 14. “At least now we know who Mohammed bin Salman wants to see win the presidential election in Turkey,” said British analyst Timothy Ash.
Geopolitical debts for Erdogan
In recent months, Ankara has been able to count on surprise investments from its Gulf neighbors, yet its rivals for years. Three days before Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates signed a five-year economic partnership with Turkey in early March, worth 40 billion dollars. A breath of fresh air for a country with official inflation at 55% – rather estimated at 112% by independent experts.
The quarrel would therefore be over between the sovereigns of the Gulf and Erdogan, who has long sought to become the leader of the Muslim world. The Turkish services had, in particular, destroyed the image of the young crown prince MBS, by making public evidence implicating him in the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. Erdogan has chosen to reach out to his former rivals and, in the process, to recover their generous donations. Without, however, making the counterparties public.
Westerners must urgently ask themselves the question: what geopolitical debts will weigh on the Turkish president in the event of re-election? Especially since the leaders of the Gulf are not the only ones to give Erdogan an economic helping hand: since the start of the war in Ukraine, trade between Turkey and Russia has jumped by 62%. “Europe must seriously consider the scenario where Erdogan is re-elected with the flagrant help of Vladimir Putin, confided to us a diplomat on the spot at the end of last year. For the moment, Turkey is playing neutrality in Ukraine, but its economic dependence on Moscow could have serious consequences…” An additional reason to look closely at the May 14 election.