The Good Friday Peace Agreement ended the violence in Northern Ireland 25 years ago, but political divisions remain.
The Good Friday Peace Agreement ended Northern Ireland’s violence 25 years ago, but political divisions remain
The coming years may see a referendum on Irish reunification. So far, however, there seems to be no support in Northern Ireland for joining the Republic of Ireland.
Monday marked the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended three decades of conflict in Northern Ireland.
The agreement calmed the violence, but on the other hand it solidified the political division in Northern Ireland, which still exists, says a leading expert Jyrki Ruohomäki From the Crisis Management Center (CMC Finland).
The mainly Protestant Unionists were promised that Northern Ireland’s constitutional status as part of Britain would not be changed without the consent of the population of the region. The predominantly Catholic nationalists, on the other hand, were assured that Northern Ireland could join the Republic of Ireland if the majority of the region so desired.
Ruohomäki points out that 25 years is a short time compared to the fact that the roots of the conflict go back hundreds of years.
– It is perhaps still too early to say whether the agreement was decisive in breaking down the social division.
Unionists are blocking local government
Political tensions in Northern Ireland have increased again with Britain’s departure from the EU.
An open border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is an integral part of the peace deal. However, Brexit made the border the external border of the EU.
The Northern Ireland Protocol signed three years ago transferred customs and border controls between Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain.
In March, on the other hand, the Windsor framework agreement signed by Britain and the EU entered into force, with which goods flow freely between Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain, and only those products that are intended to be exported from Northern Ireland to the EU are subjected to inspections.
The operation of Stormont, the regional parliament of Northern Ireland, has been stuck since last year due to the boycott of the Northern Ireland Unionist Party, DUP, which opposes the Northern Ireland Protocol.
– Attempts have been made to start local administration for a long time. That is Northern Ireland’s big political problem, and there is no easy solution to it, says Ruohomäki.
The pro-republican Sinn Fein party, which won a historic election victory in Northern Ireland last year, is seeking a referendum on the unification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald has said she expects the vote to take place within a decade.
For example, based on last year’s opinion poll by the Irish Times magazine, Northern Ireland would nevertheless vote against the unification of Ireland.
The terrorist threat level increased
At the end of March, the British government raised the terrorist threat level in Northern Ireland from “significant” to “severe”. A year earlier, the threat level had been changed in the other direction.
The change means that the British intelligence service MI5 considers it highly probable that a terrorist attack could take place in the area.
President of the United States Joe Biden is due to arrive on Tuesday for a visit to Northern Ireland to mark the anniversary of the peace agreement. When reporters asked about it, Biden assured that the increase in the terror threat level will not affect his trip.
Ruohomäki sees that raising the threat level is a precautionary measure.
All in all, he sees no real threat of violence in Ireland at the moment.
– At the moment, the situation doesn’t look terribly worrying, but it always has a chance to swing in one direction or another.