If the election result is confirmed, the opposition can form a government during the rest of the year. The development of Poland’s rule of law can take a new direction, Europe correspondent Anna Karismo writes.
Anna KarismoEurope correspondent
WARSAW. Opposition parties look set to win a clear majority in Poland’s parliament after Sunday night’s preliminary results. According to forecasts, the turnout will rise to a record 75 percent.
Although the ruling party, the nationalist Law and Justice received the most votes, it will hardly succeed in forming a majority government. The opposition Citizens’ Coalition and its allies seem to get 460 MPs out of 248 seats.
The most likely government partner of the Law and Justice party would be the far-right Confederation, but these two parties would have clearly fewer MPs than the opposition, i.e. 212.
231 seats in the House of Commons is the number needed for a working majority.
In the evening, after the preliminary results came out, there were still queues at the polling stations in different parts of Poland.
– Believe me, democracy won and the dark times are over, leader of the Citizens’ Coalition Donald Tusk said as soon as the first results came out to his supporters. He estimates that the number of votes will still change during the night in favor of the opposition.
– I am the happiest person on earth. We are building a new democratic government with our partners. The dark times are behind, Tusk said.
After the elections, Law and Justice is still the largest party with 37 percent support.
– The question is whether we can turn this victory into a new government period. We don’t know that now, but whether we were in the government or in the opposition, we will continue the project and will not let the whole of Poland down, party chairman Jarosław Kazcyński said.
What happens next is unclear. The President of Poland chooses to whom he will give the task of forming the government. Andrzej Duda already said before the elections that the scepter belongs to the Law and Justice party, i.e. Kaczyński.
The new government must gain the trust of the majority of the parliament. That is hardly what Law and justice will get with this election result. Forming a government may take weeks if not months.
The result marks a radical change in Poland after the nationalist Law and Justice has ruled Poland for two terms, or eight years.
The townspeople became active
The election result is, above all, the rise of the urban middle class. It wants Poland to be part of European democratic development. This is evidenced by the historically very high voter turnout in the cities.
The current government has, for example, weakened women’s rights and practically banned abortions completely. The law change has caused great opposition, especially among young women.
Relations with the European Union have cooled as the government has subjected the legal system and the media to strict political control. If Tusk succeeds in forming a government, he has said he will mend relations with Brussels and reform Poland’s system into a European democracy again.
The victory of the opposition could also be good news for the relations between Poland and Ukraine.
Representatives of Kaczyński’s potential partner Confederation have criticized the large number of Ukrainian refugees in Poland. The party has also accused Ukraine of a lack of gratitude to Poland for its help after the war of aggression against Russia.