NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg described today’s meeting between Sweden, Finland and Turkey as a step in the right direction. The main negotiator for Turkey was its foreign minister Hakan Fidan – whose summary of the meeting testifies to a not too good mood.
– That the security system in Sweden cannot create a mechanism to prevent provocations – makes us think, he says.
Sweden must export weapons to Turkey, expel enemies of the Turkish state and stop actions that may appear provocative to the Turkish regime – if Sweden is to be admitted to NATO. The Swedish government, backed by Joe Biden, is doing its best in the hope of appeasing Erdogan.
“We all agree that there has been good progress”, said Jens Stoltenberg when he met the press in Brussels after Thursday’s summit.
Foreign Minister Tobias Billström (M) was a little more cautious in his analysis and stated: “We shall not stumble on the finish line.”
But most skeptical of them all was Turkey’s chief negotiator, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who suggests they are being pressed for time as the summit in Vilnius approaches.
– The important thing is our vital interests and the survival of our country, it is the security of our state and nation. We will never accept time pressure as a method for questions of this kind, he says.
Saw the law change: “No significance for Turkey”
The foreign minister went on to express his cool expectations about Sweden’s expanded terror legislation. When terrorist organizations can gain access to financial resources, carry out provocations and recruit in Sweden – the legislation is meaningless from a Turkish point of view.
– Sweden has taken some steps in connection with changes in the law. Now the changes need to be reflected in practice. The fact that the security system in Sweden cannot create a mechanism to prevent provocations makes us think, he says.
The Turkish president now has a good chance of getting what he is pointing to, as the parties’ intense negotiations enter what could be the final stage.
“Intensive negotiations”
On Monday, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) will meet Erdogan to discuss Sweden’s NATO membership.
Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, does not expect Erdogan to give Kristersson a positive message at the meeting – but does not rule it out either.
– I think that Turkey is currently conducting a tough negotiation that will last until just before the NATO summit. You want to get something out that you want, he says and continues:
– Intensive negotiations are currently underway.
Classified defense plans
During the past year, Turkey has made a number of demands on Sweden in order to let the country into the alliance. At the same time, observers have speculated that Turkey may have in fact conditioned the ratification by Sweden on being allowed to buy fighter jets from the US, a deal the US has so far opposed.
Paul Levin believes that Turkey may have wanted to see similar concessions in other areas as well.
– There may be other ingredients in this that we don’t know about. There are currently negotiations on NATO’s new defense plans, which are huge, which Turkey has also blocked, says Paul Levin.
– I suspect that there are ongoing negotiations about both that and the Swedish application. The defense plans are classified and therefore it is not certain that it will be known what Turkey might get. This means that we can see big surprises, or that the parties suddenly come to an agreement.