Vladimir Putin today welcomes his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to a summit in the Russian city of Sochi.
Among other things, the leaders will try to restore an agreement that enables grain exports from Ukraine across the Black Sea.
– Erdogan has high hopes that he can reach a new agreement – and that is extremely important for the world’s grain supply, says Rolf Porseryd, foreign affairs commentator.
The two leaders have had a good relationship over the years. But the war in Ukraine has meant a difficult balancing act for the Turkish president, which has complicated the relationship, according to Porseryd.
– They have a pretty good personal relationship, even if the political contradictions pop up at regular intervals. Recently, Erdogan has humiliated Putin on a number of occasions. Among other things, when he continues to sell drones to Ukraine and that he allows prisoners of war to be released and return to Ukraine, he says.
– Which Putin regards as a stab in the back.
“Quite a big advantage”
Ahead of any negotiations, the Russian president is in a “fox pair of scissors”, according to Porseryd.
– Putin is in a bind and Erdogan can continue to threaten Russia in many ways if he wants to. For example, he could say no to all Russian traffic to and from the Crimean peninsula. Erdogan has also not, like many Western countries, imposed sanctions against Russia and continued to trade. This means that Erdogan has quite a large advantage, he says.
The Turkish president has with him drafts of the statutes that could constitute the new agreement. According to the proposal, Russia will be allowed to transport grain via Turkey if in return they allow Ukrainian grain transport via the Black Sea.
In addition, the issue of Swedish NATO membership could end up on the negotiating table.
– Yes, it could do that. That Erdogan changed his mind and said that they will now ratify Sweden is something that Putin of course dislikes. It is also a thorn in Putin’s side, says Rolf Porseryd.