Pope Francis, Erdogan, Macron, Orban, Schröder: the mediators of the war in Ukraine

While the war in Ukraine, launched on February 24 by Russia, is in its third week, attempts to mediate between the belligerents are increasing. Whether it’s Qatar, the Vatican, Hungary, France or Israel, the initiatives are all aimed at preventing Europe’s most dangerous conflict since World War II from escalating and degenerating. . Without success so far.

Israel: unsuccessful attempt for Bennett

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was the first leader to travel to Moscow on March 5 since the outbreak of the invasion to talk with Vladimir Putin. Evoking a “moral duty”, he multiplied the telephone exchanges with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, while specifying that his approach had little chance of succeeding. And, in fact, she gave nothing. Was he too pressing with President Volodymyr Zelensky? A senior Ukrainian official told the daily Ha’aretz that the Israeli leader would have above all played the telegrapher from Moscow, and de facto “asked Ukraine to capitulate”, which his cabinet denied. Zelensky in any case affirmed that Jerusalem could accommodate discussions at high level.

Turkey, host of an official exchange

In Antalya, discussions broke down on March 10 between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers. But the symbol is there: the Turkey of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, involved in a number of Mediterranean conflicts in which Moscow has also participated in recent years (Syria, Libya), can also play the facilitators of peace.

Its role and position are not entirely neutral, however, since its Bayraktar TB2 drones, delivered just before the start of the war in kyiv, caused considerable damage in the Russian columns. Within NATO, Turkey’s voice is unique: it is one of the few members that has maintained its air links to and from Russia. Ankara, which buys Russian gas, has also refrained from sanctioning Moscow.

Qatar offers its services

Doha had hosted negotiations between the Taliban and the United States before the departure of the Americans from Afghanistan. So why not play a role in those between kyiv and Moscow? It is therefore quite natural that Qatar, a gas power on good terms with Russia, offered to mediate between the two parties. The war, in addition to the Iranian nuclear agreement, was also on the menu of the visit, Monday, March 14, of the Qatari Foreign Minister to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Emir Tamim al-Thani, who hosted Volodymyr Zelensky a year ago, for his part had the opportunity to speak with him.

Gerhard Schröder, personal mediation

On the social network Instagram, Kim Soyeon, the fifth wife of Gerhard Schröder, staged her hands joined, as if in prayer, with the Kremlin in the background. The former Chancellor himself made a return trip to Moscow on March 10 and 11 to meet with Vladimir Putin, his “friend”, as part of a “mediation effort” in connection with the Ukrainian delegation present in Turkey. Unsurprisingly, the only former European prime minister who refused to resign from his mandates in large Russian companies got nothing. Friendship has its limits.

Hungary dreams of being a mediator

This must not have escaped Vladimir Putin: within the Twenty-Seven, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has often set up the master of the Kremlin as a model, continues to play a different score. Admittedly, Hungary, which is a member of NATO, condemned the invasion and voted for sanctions against Russia – it also hosts tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees. But it refuses to provide any military aid to kyiv and prohibits the transit of arms to Ukraine via its territory. Criticized on the European scene for his “illiberal” model, Orban dreams of being a peacemaker. From February 25, Budapest presented itself as a “safe place” for talks. Not sure that Volodymyr Zelensky thinks he’s in the best position.

China says it is “willing”

The communist regime knows it can play different roles in the war in Ukraine. It remains to choose which one will benefit him the most, in the long term. For now, Beijing has insisted on its “rock-solid” friendship with Moscow, while “regretting” that there is a conflict in Ukraine. China also said it was “willing” to participate in “necessary mediation when the time comes”. But this is not what Russia seems to expect from its ally: the New York Times thus revealed that Moscow would have requested military aid from the Chinese.

France does not break the dialogue

At the forefront of Western sanctions and at the heart of coordination between the Member States of the European Union and Washington, Paris has a special role. It is in agreement with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, that Emmanuel Macron maintains a regular channel of exchange with Vladimir Putin. In all, since their meeting in the Kremlin on February 7, the two heads of state have had nine talks. The last two, on March 10 and 12, also had German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as a participant. Their call for an “immediate Russian ceasefire” has so far gone unheeded.

Vatican ‘ready to help’

The Catholic Church is not only concerned with mediation between God and believers. She is also used to diplomatic talks – for example between Cuba and the United States under Barack Obama. As soon as the war broke out at the end of February, the Vatican said it was “ready to help” in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This did not prevent Pope Francis from denouncing the “massacres” and deploring “rivers of blood and tears”. It’s hard to imagine Vladimir Putin accepting his mediation. Stalin, in his time, had moreover been ironic about the importance given to the Holy See: “The Pope, how many divisions?”