The 2024 US presidential election will once again be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, barring one of the two candidates being prevented from running. Poll results give the Republican the advantage.
The outlines of the duel between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election have taken a very particular turn since the assassination attempt targeting the Republican and the growing doubts within the Democratic Party about the current president’s ability to ensure a new 4-year term without fail.
Among Democrats, the choice is officially to support the outgoing president and candidate for his succession, despite his unpopularity and the cognitive weaknesses that have multiplied in recent weeks. While on the Republican side Donald Trump imposed himself without any difficulty, after very short primaries. The attack he suffered on July 13, 2024 should not change the situation, on the contrary: the former president appears more determined than ever, surrounded by the aura of the political martyr.
Although they are the only ones in the race, or almost, in their respective political families, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are not going to have an easy election campaign. The former will have to juggle between meetings and the legal proceedings still in progress, while the latter will have to convince very quickly and once and for all of his good physical and mental health to claim the presidency at 82 years old.
What are the poll results between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?
The result of the American presidential election could be as close as that of the previous presidential election in 2020. The latest studies collected by the specialist site 270towin show very close scores between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. In mid-July, Donald Trump was credited with around 50% of the voting intentions of registered voters compared to 48% for Joe Biden, if we exclude the other independent candidates.
But the American election is actually played out state by state, each of them giving the candidates a batch of votes through the electors at the end of the vote. It is therefore the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision on the probable results of this American presidential election. According to 270towin, it is indeed Donald Trump who has the advantage at this stage, but the vote is actually looking very close and uncertain at this stage.
When is the 2024 US presidential election?
Voters are set to go to the polls on November 5 to vote in the 2024 presidential election and choose whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump will return to the White House. However, Americans will not directly elect the President of the United States; instead, they will designate 538 electors divided according to the number of representatives each state has in Congress. It is these electors, also with a political color – between blue for Democrats and red for Republicans – who will then elect the President and his Vice President on December 17. The official inauguration of the Head of State will take place on January 20, 2025.
Trump, an eligible presidential candidate despite the trials?
The Republican camp will be represented by Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The millionaire discouraged or defeated the dozen or so candidates who entered the race before or during the primaries. It must be said that the former White House tenant enjoys impressive popularity among conservative voters. And his support is never weakened by his legal setbacks, or even his convictions. Donal Trump has already been convicted twice since January 2024 for defamation and financial fraud.
The presidential candidate was also convicted in April in a criminal case for falsifying campaign accounts to cover up a bribe paid to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels, and in August he faces another trial for voter fraud in Georgia during the 2020 campaign. The most anticipated trial, on Donald Trump’s involvement in the January 2021 Capitol assault, was scheduled to begin on March 4, but has been postponed to a later date.
This latest trial is the only one that poses a real risk to Donald Trump’s candidacy. In the United States, no conviction or prison sentence represents a character of ineligibility in the United States, only the fact of having “taken part in an insurrection or rebellion” against the country and its institutions prevents an individual from being elected to high state office. The charges of “conspiracy against the state” and “calling for insurrection” being retained in the trial on the Capitol affair, the trial could recognize Donald Trump’s ineligibility. But in fact the chances of this happening are (very) slim.
Donald Trump’s eligibility was threatened for the primaries of three states – Colorado, Maine and Illinois – but these judgments were overturned by the Supreme Court of the United States on March 4. A choice supported by conservative and progressive judges who believe that decisions of federated states cannot influence a federal election common to all American states.
Biden, too old but only candidate for Democrats?
No legal concerns in the Democratic camp, but serious concerns about the health of the outgoing president and candidate for re-election. At 81, Joe Biden has already shown signs of weakness, some of which have called into question his lucidity. In February 2024, a report pointing to the “poor memory” of the “elderly” man fueled fears about the health of the head of state. He had assured, but ruined his defense with yet another slip of the tongue confusing the Egyptian and Mexican presidents. Before that, he had confused Macron with Mitterrand or the war in Ukraine with that in Iraq.
Fears over Joe Biden’s health and advanced age have been gaining ground among voters since his disastrous June 27 debate, in which he appeared overwhelmed and unable to follow his train of thought. A poll published by the New York Times in the spring showed before this episode that 73% of Americans who vote consider the candidate too old to “effectively lead the country”, including 55% who had supported the man in 2020. Concerns are also being heard within the ranks of the political party, but it seems difficult to replace Joe Biden if he does not renounce his candidacy himself. However, the president does not seem to be considering his withdrawal.
Especially since establishing yourself as an alternative to Joe Biden would be risky, especially if Donald Trump wins. “If you stand up to challenge the incumbent president and you fail, making it easier for Donald Trump to be elected, you destroy your political career,” explained William Galston, an expert at the Brookings Institution and columnist in the Wall Street Journal. The party must still have a backup plan in its drawers in the event of a voluntary or forced withdrawal due to health problems or, in the worst case, the death of Joe Biden during the campaign. It would then be up to the Republican delegates elected during the primaries to choose a new candidate. California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer are regularly mentioned as alternatives, but have not managed to impose themselves.
Who are the other candidates for the 2024 US presidential election?
Aside from the candidates of the two major American parties, two men have entered the presidential race. Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., nephew of former US President John Fitzgerald Kennedy, is running as an independent candidate. He had initially considered participating in the Democratic Party primaries, but announced that he would not do so in October 2023. This lawyer specializing in environmental law has already shown his political support for previous Democratic candidates such as Hillary Clinton. He is also known for being a fervent anti-vaccination activist.